Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios
The present study investigates the response of the high-latitude carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. To this end we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land surface component of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b2eca26de0fd4781bc4dd4c07f62e4a1 2023-05-15T17:58:19+02:00 Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese T. Stacke T. Kleinen V. Brovkin 2021-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021 https://doaj.org/article/b2eca26de0fd4781bc4dd4c07f62e4a1 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1097/2021/tc-15-1097-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/b2eca26de0fd4781bc4dd4c07f62e4a1 The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 1097-1130 (2021) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021 2022-12-31T07:01:15Z The present study investigates the response of the high-latitude carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. To this end we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land surface component of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) – that accounts for the organic matter stored in the permafrost-affected soils of the high northern latitudes. The model is run under different climate scenarios that assume an increase in GHG concentrations, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which peaks in the years 2025, 2050, 2075 or 2100, respectively. The peaks are followed by a decrease in atmospheric GHGs that returns the concentrations to the levels at the beginning of the 21st century, reversing the imposed climate change. We show that the soil CO 2 emissions exhibit an almost linear dependence on the global mean surface temperatures that are simulated for the different climate scenarios. Here, each degree of warming increases the fluxes by, very roughly, 50 % of their initial value, while each degree of cooling decreases them correspondingly. However, the linear dependence does not mean that the processes governing the soil CO 2 emissions are fully reversible on short timescales but rather that two strongly hysteretic factors offset each other – namely the net primary productivity and the availability of formerly frozen soil organic matter. In contrast, the soil methane emissions show a less pronounced increase with rising temperatures, and they are consistently lower after the peak in the GHG concentrations than prior to it. Here, the net fluxes could even become negative, and we find that methane emissions will play only a minor role in the northern high-latitude contribution to global warming, even when considering the high global warming potential of the gas. Finally, we find that at a global mean temperature of roughly 1.75 K ( ±0.5 K ) above pre-industrial levels ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 15 2 1097 1130 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 P. de Vrese T. Stacke T. Kleinen V. Brovkin Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The present study investigates the response of the high-latitude carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. To this end we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land surface component of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) – that accounts for the organic matter stored in the permafrost-affected soils of the high northern latitudes. The model is run under different climate scenarios that assume an increase in GHG concentrations, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which peaks in the years 2025, 2050, 2075 or 2100, respectively. The peaks are followed by a decrease in atmospheric GHGs that returns the concentrations to the levels at the beginning of the 21st century, reversing the imposed climate change. We show that the soil CO 2 emissions exhibit an almost linear dependence on the global mean surface temperatures that are simulated for the different climate scenarios. Here, each degree of warming increases the fluxes by, very roughly, 50 % of their initial value, while each degree of cooling decreases them correspondingly. However, the linear dependence does not mean that the processes governing the soil CO 2 emissions are fully reversible on short timescales but rather that two strongly hysteretic factors offset each other – namely the net primary productivity and the availability of formerly frozen soil organic matter. In contrast, the soil methane emissions show a less pronounced increase with rising temperatures, and they are consistently lower after the peak in the GHG concentrations than prior to it. Here, the net fluxes could even become negative, and we find that methane emissions will play only a minor role in the northern high-latitude contribution to global warming, even when considering the high global warming potential of the gas. Finally, we find that at a global mean temperature of roughly 1.75 K ( ±0.5 K ) above pre-industrial levels ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
P. de Vrese T. Stacke T. Kleinen V. Brovkin |
author_facet |
P. de Vrese T. Stacke T. Kleinen V. Brovkin |
author_sort |
P. de Vrese |
title |
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
title_short |
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
title_full |
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Diverging responses of high-latitude CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
title_sort |
diverging responses of high-latitude co 2 and ch 4 emissions in idealized climate change scenarios |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021 https://doaj.org/article/b2eca26de0fd4781bc4dd4c07f62e4a1 |
genre |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
permafrost The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 15, Pp 1097-1130 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1097/2021/tc-15-1097-2021.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/b2eca26de0fd4781bc4dd4c07f62e4a1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
1097 |
op_container_end_page |
1130 |
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