Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming

• Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Main Authors: Pak Wah Chan, Jennifer L. Catto, Matthew Collins
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2022
• Subjects: Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Greenland
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00290-2; https://doaj.org/article/b164d717709a44f3a1967600c3d6c9ce

Abstract Extra-tropical continental summer heatwaves often occur under persistent anticyclones or blocking. Here we partition heatwave changes into contributions from blocking changes, heatwave–blocking relation change and mean temperature increase, under global warming in climate models. We employ an optimized blocking index that best correlates with heatwaves (Pearson correlation of 0.7) and find heatwave-driving blocking decreases but the change in heatwave–blocking relation likely dominates. Over Europe, with a historical heatwave frequency of 2.5%, less blocking will cause 0.6% fewer heatwaves, steepened heatwave–blocking relation will cause 1.4% more heatwaves, and the mean temperature increase will cause 60% more heatwaves. Over Greenland, flattened heatwave–blocking relation will dominate over the insignificant decrease in blocking. The future increase in heatwave frequency is not caused by changes in blocking frequency, but by factors such as thermodynamics, that enhance the capacity of blocking to drive heatwaves.