Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model
Using a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, physical processes underlying Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability and predictability are investigated. Our model simulations constrained by atmospheric reanalysis and observed sea surface temperature broadly capture a multidecadal va...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b14e2794ef82406a8362cc9217d6df72 2024-01-07T09:38:30+01:00 Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model Y. Morioka L. Zhang T. L. Delworth X. Yang F. Zeng M. Nonaka S. K. Behera 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023 https://doaj.org/article/b14e2794ef82406a8362cc9217d6df72 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/5219/2023/tc-17-5219-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/b14e2794ef82406a8362cc9217d6df72 The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 5219-5240 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023 2023-12-10T01:37:44Z Using a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, physical processes underlying Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability and predictability are investigated. Our model simulations constrained by atmospheric reanalysis and observed sea surface temperature broadly capture a multidecadal variability in the observed sea ice extent (SIE) with a low sea ice state (late 1970s–1990s) and a high sea ice state (2000s–early 2010s), although the model overestimates the SIE decrease in the Weddell Sea around the 1980s. The low sea ice state is largely due to the deepening of the mixed layer and the associated deep convection that brings subsurface warm water to the surface. During the high sea ice period (post-2000s), the deep convection substantially weakens, so surface wind variability plays a greater role in the SIE variability. Decadal retrospective forecasts started from the above model simulations demonstrate that the Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability can be skillfully predicted 6–10 years in advance, showing a moderate correlation with the observation. Ensemble members with a deeper mixed layer and stronger deep convection tend to predict a larger sea ice decrease in the 1980s, whereas members with a larger surface wind variability tend to predict a larger sea ice increase after the 2000s. Therefore, skillful simulation and prediction of the Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability require accurate simulation and prediction of the mixed layer, deep convection, and surface wind variability in the model. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Weddell Sea Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea The Cryosphere 17 12 5219 5240 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 Y. Morioka L. Zhang T. L. Delworth X. Yang F. Zeng M. Nonaka S. K. Behera Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Using a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model, physical processes underlying Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability and predictability are investigated. Our model simulations constrained by atmospheric reanalysis and observed sea surface temperature broadly capture a multidecadal variability in the observed sea ice extent (SIE) with a low sea ice state (late 1970s–1990s) and a high sea ice state (2000s–early 2010s), although the model overestimates the SIE decrease in the Weddell Sea around the 1980s. The low sea ice state is largely due to the deepening of the mixed layer and the associated deep convection that brings subsurface warm water to the surface. During the high sea ice period (post-2000s), the deep convection substantially weakens, so surface wind variability plays a greater role in the SIE variability. Decadal retrospective forecasts started from the above model simulations demonstrate that the Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability can be skillfully predicted 6–10 years in advance, showing a moderate correlation with the observation. Ensemble members with a deeper mixed layer and stronger deep convection tend to predict a larger sea ice decrease in the 1980s, whereas members with a larger surface wind variability tend to predict a larger sea ice increase after the 2000s. Therefore, skillful simulation and prediction of the Antarctic sea ice multidecadal variability require accurate simulation and prediction of the mixed layer, deep convection, and surface wind variability in the model. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Y. Morioka L. Zhang T. L. Delworth X. Yang F. Zeng M. Nonaka S. K. Behera |
author_facet |
Y. Morioka L. Zhang T. L. Delworth X. Yang F. Zeng M. Nonaka S. K. Behera |
author_sort |
Y. Morioka |
title |
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model |
title_short |
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model |
title_full |
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model |
title_fullStr |
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multidecadal variability and predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the GFDL SPEAR_LO model |
title_sort |
multidecadal variability and predictability of antarctic sea ice in the gfdl spear_lo model |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023 https://doaj.org/article/b14e2794ef82406a8362cc9217d6df72 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Weddell Sea |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 5219-5240 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/5219/2023/tc-17-5219-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/b14e2794ef82406a8362cc9217d6df72 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5219-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5219 |
op_container_end_page |
5240 |
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1787423593666183168 |