Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300
Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulatio...
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Cambridge University Press
2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 https://doaj.org/article/b11c7010b0eb47bf9d563ed4b46c98f7 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b11c7010b0eb47bf9d563ed4b46c98f7 2023-05-15T16:21:41+02:00 Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 Louise Steffensen Schmidt Guðfinna Ađalgeirsdóttir Finnur Pálsson Peter L. Langen Sverrir Guđmundsson Helgi Björnsson 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 https://doaj.org/article/b11c7010b0eb47bf9d563ed4b46c98f7 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002214301900090X/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.90 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/b11c7010b0eb47bf9d563ed4b46c98f7 Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 97-112 (2020) Energy balance glacier flow glacier modelling glacier volume ice cap Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 2023-03-12T01:30:57Z Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulations of the recent past, HARMONIE-AROME reanalysis-forced simulations are used, while for future climate conditions, high-resolution (5.5 km) simulations from the RCM HIRHAM5 are used in addition to available CORDEX simulations (12 km). The glacier evolution is modelled using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios until 2100. To extend the time series, the 2081–2100 climate forcing is repeated until 2300. For RCP 4.5, the ice cap loses 31–64% of its volume and 13–37% of its area by 2300 depending on the used model forcing. For RCP 8.5, the volume decrease is 51–94% and the area decrease is 24–80% by 2300. In addition, the effect of elevation feedbacks is investigated by adding a precipitation and temperature lapse rate to the HIRHAM5 simulations. By 2300, the lapse rate runs have a 9–14% smaller volume and a 9–20% smaller area than the runs without a lapse rate correction. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Ice cap Ice Sheet Iceland Journal of Glaciology Vatnajökull Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Vatnajökull ENVELOPE(-16.823,-16.823,64.420,64.420) Journal of Glaciology 66 255 97 112 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Energy balance glacier flow glacier modelling glacier volume ice cap Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Energy balance glacier flow glacier modelling glacier volume ice cap Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Louise Steffensen Schmidt Guðfinna Ađalgeirsdóttir Finnur Pálsson Peter L. Langen Sverrir Guđmundsson Helgi Björnsson Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
topic_facet |
Energy balance glacier flow glacier modelling glacier volume ice cap Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Like most ice caps and glaciers worldwide, Icelandic glaciers are retreating in a warming climate. Here, the evolution of Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland, from 1980 to 2300 is simulated by forcing the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) with output from Regional Climate Models (RCMs). For climate simulations of the recent past, HARMONIE-AROME reanalysis-forced simulations are used, while for future climate conditions, high-resolution (5.5 km) simulations from the RCM HIRHAM5 are used in addition to available CORDEX simulations (12 km). The glacier evolution is modelled using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios until 2100. To extend the time series, the 2081–2100 climate forcing is repeated until 2300. For RCP 4.5, the ice cap loses 31–64% of its volume and 13–37% of its area by 2300 depending on the used model forcing. For RCP 8.5, the volume decrease is 51–94% and the area decrease is 24–80% by 2300. In addition, the effect of elevation feedbacks is investigated by adding a precipitation and temperature lapse rate to the HIRHAM5 simulations. By 2300, the lapse rate runs have a 9–14% smaller volume and a 9–20% smaller area than the runs without a lapse rate correction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Louise Steffensen Schmidt Guðfinna Ađalgeirsdóttir Finnur Pálsson Peter L. Langen Sverrir Guđmundsson Helgi Björnsson |
author_facet |
Louise Steffensen Schmidt Guðfinna Ađalgeirsdóttir Finnur Pálsson Peter L. Langen Sverrir Guđmundsson Helgi Björnsson |
author_sort |
Louise Steffensen Schmidt |
title |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_short |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_full |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_fullStr |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dynamic simulations of Vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
title_sort |
dynamic simulations of vatnajökull ice cap from 1980 to 2300 |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 https://doaj.org/article/b11c7010b0eb47bf9d563ed4b46c98f7 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-16.823,-16.823,64.420,64.420) |
geographic |
Vatnajökull |
geographic_facet |
Vatnajökull |
genre |
glacier Ice cap Ice Sheet Iceland Journal of Glaciology Vatnajökull |
genre_facet |
glacier Ice cap Ice Sheet Iceland Journal of Glaciology Vatnajökull |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 97-112 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S002214301900090X/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.90 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/b11c7010b0eb47bf9d563ed4b46c98f7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.90 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
255 |
container_start_page |
97 |
op_container_end_page |
112 |
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1766009681201856512 |