Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior
Abstract Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model pr...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b0d7407206df4d25a203459056516046 2023-05-15T17:30:40+02:00 Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior Jerry F. Tjiputra Jean Negrel Are Olsen 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 https://doaj.org/article/b0d7407206df4d25a203459056516046 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/b0d7407206df4d25a203459056516046 Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2023) Medicine R Science Q article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 2023-03-26T01:33:28Z Abstract Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Southern Ocean Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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Medicine R Science Q Jerry F. Tjiputra Jean Negrel Are Olsen Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
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Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Abstract Robust detection of anthropogenic climate change is crucial to: (i) improve our understanding of Earth system responses to external forcing, (ii) reduce uncertainty in future climate projections, and (iii) develop efficient mitigation and adaptation plans. Here, we use Earth system model projections to establish the detection timescales of anthropogenic signals in the global ocean through analyzing temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH evolution from surface to 2000 m depths. For most variables, anthropogenic changes emerge earlier in the interior ocean than at the surface, due to the lower background variability at depth. Acidification is detectable earliest, followed by warming and oxygen changes in the subsurface tropical Atlantic. Temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Even under mitigated scenarios, inner ocean anthropogenic signals are projected to emerge within the next few decades. This is because they originate from existing surface changes that are now propagating into the interior. In addition to the tropical Atlantic, our study calls for establishment of long-term interior monitoring systems in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic in order to elucidate how spatially heterogeneous anthropogenic signals propagate into the interior and impact marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jerry F. Tjiputra Jean Negrel Are Olsen |
author_facet |
Jerry F. Tjiputra Jean Negrel Are Olsen |
author_sort |
Jerry F. Tjiputra |
title |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_short |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_full |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_fullStr |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
title_sort |
early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals in the ocean interior |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 https://doaj.org/article/b0d7407206df4d25a203459056516046 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 doi:10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 2045-2322 https://doaj.org/article/b0d7407206df4d25a203459056516046 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30159-0 |
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Scientific Reports |
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13 |
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1 |
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1766127550732435456 |