An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling
Observed reductions in Earth's surface temperature following explosive volcanic eruptions have been used as a proxy for geoengineering of climate by the artificial enhancement of stratospheric sulfate. Earth cools following major eruptions due to an increase in the reflection of sunlight caused...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b089c9ca23704a74b411726dc6811e4f 2023-05-15T17:35:49+02:00 An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling T. Canty N. R. Mascioli M. D. Smarte R. J. Salawitch 2013-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013 https://doaj.org/article/b089c9ca23704a74b411726dc6811e4f EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3997/2013/acp-13-3997-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/b089c9ca23704a74b411726dc6811e4f Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 13, Iss 8, Pp 3997-4031 (2013) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013 2022-12-31T05:33:32Z Observed reductions in Earth's surface temperature following explosive volcanic eruptions have been used as a proxy for geoengineering of climate by the artificial enhancement of stratospheric sulfate. Earth cools following major eruptions due to an increase in the reflection of sunlight caused by a dramatic enhancement of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden. Significant global cooling has been observed following the four major eruptions since 1900: Santa María, Mount Agung, El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo, leading IPCC (2007) to state "major volcanic eruptions can, thus, cause a drop in global mean surface temperature of about half a degree Celsius that can last for months and even years". We use a multiple linear regression model applied to the global surface temperature anomaly to suggest that exchange of heat between the atmosphere and ocean, driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), has been a factor in the decline of global temperature following these eruptions. The veracity of this suggestion depends on whether sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, sometimes called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but here referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), truly represents a proxy for the strength of the AMOC. Also, precise quantification of global cooling due to volcanoes depends on how the AMV index is detrended. If the AMV index is detrended using anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, we find that surface cooling attributed to Mt. Pinatubo, using the Hadley Centre/University of East Anglia surface temperature record, maximises at 0.14 °C globally and 0.32 °C over land. These values are about a factor of 2 less than found when the AMV index is neglected in the model and quite a bit lower than the canonical 0.5 °C cooling usually attributed to Pinatubo. This result is driven by the high amplitude, low frequency component of the AMV index, demonstrating that reduced impact of volcanic cooling upon consideration of the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13 8 3997 4031 |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 T. Canty N. R. Mascioli M. D. Smarte R. J. Salawitch An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Observed reductions in Earth's surface temperature following explosive volcanic eruptions have been used as a proxy for geoengineering of climate by the artificial enhancement of stratospheric sulfate. Earth cools following major eruptions due to an increase in the reflection of sunlight caused by a dramatic enhancement of the stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden. Significant global cooling has been observed following the four major eruptions since 1900: Santa María, Mount Agung, El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo, leading IPCC (2007) to state "major volcanic eruptions can, thus, cause a drop in global mean surface temperature of about half a degree Celsius that can last for months and even years". We use a multiple linear regression model applied to the global surface temperature anomaly to suggest that exchange of heat between the atmosphere and ocean, driven by variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), has been a factor in the decline of global temperature following these eruptions. The veracity of this suggestion depends on whether sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, sometimes called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but here referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), truly represents a proxy for the strength of the AMOC. Also, precise quantification of global cooling due to volcanoes depends on how the AMV index is detrended. If the AMV index is detrended using anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, we find that surface cooling attributed to Mt. Pinatubo, using the Hadley Centre/University of East Anglia surface temperature record, maximises at 0.14 °C globally and 0.32 °C over land. These values are about a factor of 2 less than found when the AMV index is neglected in the model and quite a bit lower than the canonical 0.5 °C cooling usually attributed to Pinatubo. This result is driven by the high amplitude, low frequency component of the AMV index, demonstrating that reduced impact of volcanic cooling upon consideration of the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Canty N. R. Mascioli M. D. Smarte R. J. Salawitch |
author_facet |
T. Canty N. R. Mascioli M. D. Smarte R. J. Salawitch |
author_sort |
T. Canty |
title |
An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
title_short |
An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
title_full |
An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
title_fullStr |
An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
title_full_unstemmed |
An empirical model of global climate – Part 1: A critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
title_sort |
empirical model of global climate – part 1: a critical evaluation of volcanic cooling |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013 https://doaj.org/article/b089c9ca23704a74b411726dc6811e4f |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 13, Iss 8, Pp 3997-4031 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3997/2013/acp-13-3997-2013.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/b089c9ca23704a74b411726dc6811e4f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3997-2013 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3997 |
op_container_end_page |
4031 |
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1766135091981975552 |