The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach.
The epidemiology of dengue fever is characterized by highly seasonal, multi-annual fluctuations, and the irregular circulation of its four serotypes. It is believed that this behaviour arises from the interplay between environmental drivers and serotype interactions. The exact mechanism, however, is...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b074ca8a30d34730a89cd9557013421b 2023-05-15T15:10:57+02:00 The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. Quirine A Ten Bosch Brajendra K Singh Muhammad R A Hassan Dave D Chadee Edwin Michael 2016-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680 https://doaj.org/article/b074ca8a30d34730a89cd9557013421b EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4861330?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680 https://doaj.org/article/b074ca8a30d34730a89cd9557013421b PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 5, p e0004680 (2016) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680 2022-12-31T11:43:00Z The epidemiology of dengue fever is characterized by highly seasonal, multi-annual fluctuations, and the irregular circulation of its four serotypes. It is believed that this behaviour arises from the interplay between environmental drivers and serotype interactions. The exact mechanism, however, is uncertain. Constraining mathematical models to patterns characteristic to dengue epidemiology offers a means for detecting such mechanisms. Here, we used a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) strategy to fit and assess a range of dengue models, driven by combinations of temporary cross protective-immunity, cross-enhancement, and seasonal forcing, on their ability to capture the main characteristics of dengue dynamics. We show that all proposed models reproduce the observed dengue patterns across some part of the parameter space. Which model best supports the dengue dynamics is determined by the level of seasonal forcing. Further, when tertiary and quaternary infections are allowed, the inclusion of temporary cross-immunity alone is strongly supported, but the addition of cross-enhancement markedly reduces the parameter range at which dengue dynamics are produced, irrespective of the strength of seasonal forcing. The implication of these structural uncertainties on predicted vulnerability to control is also discussed. With ever expanding spread of dengue, greater understanding of dengue dynamics and control efforts (e.g. a near-future vaccine introduction) has become critically important. This study highlights the capacity of multi-level pattern-matching modelling approaches to offer an analytic tool for deeper insights into dengue epidemiology and control. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10 5 e0004680 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Quirine A Ten Bosch Brajendra K Singh Muhammad R A Hassan Dave D Chadee Edwin Michael The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The epidemiology of dengue fever is characterized by highly seasonal, multi-annual fluctuations, and the irregular circulation of its four serotypes. It is believed that this behaviour arises from the interplay between environmental drivers and serotype interactions. The exact mechanism, however, is uncertain. Constraining mathematical models to patterns characteristic to dengue epidemiology offers a means for detecting such mechanisms. Here, we used a pattern-oriented modelling (POM) strategy to fit and assess a range of dengue models, driven by combinations of temporary cross protective-immunity, cross-enhancement, and seasonal forcing, on their ability to capture the main characteristics of dengue dynamics. We show that all proposed models reproduce the observed dengue patterns across some part of the parameter space. Which model best supports the dengue dynamics is determined by the level of seasonal forcing. Further, when tertiary and quaternary infections are allowed, the inclusion of temporary cross-immunity alone is strongly supported, but the addition of cross-enhancement markedly reduces the parameter range at which dengue dynamics are produced, irrespective of the strength of seasonal forcing. The implication of these structural uncertainties on predicted vulnerability to control is also discussed. With ever expanding spread of dengue, greater understanding of dengue dynamics and control efforts (e.g. a near-future vaccine introduction) has become critically important. This study highlights the capacity of multi-level pattern-matching modelling approaches to offer an analytic tool for deeper insights into dengue epidemiology and control. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Quirine A Ten Bosch Brajendra K Singh Muhammad R A Hassan Dave D Chadee Edwin Michael |
author_facet |
Quirine A Ten Bosch Brajendra K Singh Muhammad R A Hassan Dave D Chadee Edwin Michael |
author_sort |
Quirine A Ten Bosch |
title |
The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. |
title_short |
The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. |
title_full |
The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. |
title_fullStr |
The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach. |
title_sort |
role of serotype interactions and seasonality in dengue model selection and control: insights from a pattern matching approach. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680 https://doaj.org/article/b074ca8a30d34730a89cd9557013421b |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 5, p e0004680 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4861330?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680 https://doaj.org/article/b074ca8a30d34730a89cd9557013421b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
e0004680 |
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