On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity
Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability of computer (and human) resources combined with operational deadlines. For operational weather services it is therefore important to utilize their resources to maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecas...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c 2023-05-15T14:48:25+02:00 On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c EN eng Stockholm University Press http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 73, Iss 1, Pp 1-18 (2021) arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 2022-12-30T23:58:19Z Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability of computer (and human) resources combined with operational deadlines. For operational weather services it is therefore important to utilize their resources to maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecast quality in a state-of-the-art high-resolution regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system changes with varying configuration choices; (1) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), (2) higher spatial resolution, (3) atmospheric initialization by assimilation of observations, (4) surface initialization by assimilation of observations and by (5) changing the regional domain and location. Results from such inter-comparisons are useful guidance for (Arctic) weather forecast systems, and can together with information on e.g. user-needs and post-processing capabilities be used to maximize the operational predictive capacity. All configuration choices have a significant impact on the forecast quality of near-surface parameters, but the impact varies with parameter, region, weather type, lead time and part of the forecast evaluated (e.g. average errors or rare events). Higher spatial resolution and EPS are expensive, but are still promising to further improve state-of-the-art regional Arctic high-resolution NWP systems. In particular when forecasting rare events regional EPS shows huge benefits. Assimilation of observations in the initialization process of the regional NWP system has also a positive impact on forecast quality. Finally, although less pronounced, the choice of the domain size and location also has a significant impact and should therefore be chosen carefully. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 73 1 1 18 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
topic_facet |
arctic regional numerical weather prediction operational forecast quality ensemble prediction system high-resolution initialization Oceanography GC1-1581 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Limitations to operational weather forecasts exist in terms of availability of computer (and human) resources combined with operational deadlines. For operational weather services it is therefore important to utilize their resources to maximize the predictive capability. This study shows how forecast quality in a state-of-the-art high-resolution regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system changes with varying configuration choices; (1) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), (2) higher spatial resolution, (3) atmospheric initialization by assimilation of observations, (4) surface initialization by assimilation of observations and by (5) changing the regional domain and location. Results from such inter-comparisons are useful guidance for (Arctic) weather forecast systems, and can together with information on e.g. user-needs and post-processing capabilities be used to maximize the operational predictive capacity. All configuration choices have a significant impact on the forecast quality of near-surface parameters, but the impact varies with parameter, region, weather type, lead time and part of the forecast evaluated (e.g. average errors or rare events). Higher spatial resolution and EPS are expensive, but are still promising to further improve state-of-the-art regional Arctic high-resolution NWP systems. In particular when forecasting rare events regional EPS shows huge benefits. Assimilation of observations in the initialization process of the regional NWP system has also a positive impact on forecast quality. Finally, although less pronounced, the choice of the domain size and location also has a significant impact and should therefore be chosen carefully. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton |
author_facet |
Morten KØltzow Rafael Grote Andrew Singleton |
author_sort |
Morten KØltzow |
title |
On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
title_short |
On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
title_full |
On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
title_fullStr |
On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the configuration of a regional Arctic Numerical Weather Prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
title_sort |
on the configuration of a regional arctic numerical weather prediction system to maximize predictive capacity |
publisher |
Stockholm University Press |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol 73, Iss 1, Pp 1-18 (2021) |
op_relation |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 https://doaj.org/toc/1600-0870 1600-0870 doi:10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 https://doaj.org/article/b068e18694b2417c824fb413c7a6253c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2021.1976093 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
73 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
18 |
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1766319489974009856 |