Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure
The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship...
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MDPI AG
2022
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006 https://doaj.org/article/b03fcf2337e34c8f86fb4cf8daea42c5 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b03fcf2337e34c8f86fb4cf8daea42c5 2023-05-15T17:05:42+02:00 Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure Andrew C. W. Leung William A. Gough Tanzina Mohsin 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006 https://doaj.org/article/b03fcf2337e34c8f86fb4cf8daea42c5 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/1/6 https://doaj.org/toc/2571-9394 doi:10.3390/forecast4010006 2571-9394 https://doaj.org/article/b03fcf2337e34c8f86fb4cf8daea42c5 Forecasting, Vol 4, Iss 6, Pp 95-125 (2022) time series analysis climate projection statistical downscaling climate change impacts critical infrastructure vulnerability Northern Canada Science (General) Q1-390 Mathematics QA1-939 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006 2022-12-31T13:25:56Z The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship between atmospheric variables and soil temperature are determined using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a climatological data set. SDSM was found to replicate historic soil temperatures well and used to project soil temperatures for the remainder of the century using climate model output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2). Three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This study found that the soil temperature at this location may warm at 0.9 to 1.2 °C per decade at various depths. Annual soil temperatures at all depths are projected to rise to above 0 °C for the 1997–2026 period for all climate scenarios. The melting soil poses a hazard to the airport infrastructure and will require adaptation measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Kuujjuaq Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Canada Kuujjuaq ENVELOPE(-68.398,-68.398,58.100,58.100) Forecasting 4 1 95 125 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
time series analysis climate projection statistical downscaling climate change impacts critical infrastructure vulnerability Northern Canada Science (General) Q1-390 Mathematics QA1-939 |
spellingShingle |
time series analysis climate projection statistical downscaling climate change impacts critical infrastructure vulnerability Northern Canada Science (General) Q1-390 Mathematics QA1-939 Andrew C. W. Leung William A. Gough Tanzina Mohsin Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure |
topic_facet |
time series analysis climate projection statistical downscaling climate change impacts critical infrastructure vulnerability Northern Canada Science (General) Q1-390 Mathematics QA1-939 |
description |
The impact of climate change on soil temperatures at Kuujjuaq, Quebec in northern Canada is assessed. First, long-term historical soil temperature records (1967–1995) are statistically analyzed to provide a climatological baseline for soils at 5 to 150 cm depths. Next, the nature of the relationship between atmospheric variables and soil temperature are determined using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a climatological data set. SDSM was found to replicate historic soil temperatures well and used to project soil temperatures for the remainder of the century using climate model output Canadian Second Generation Earth System Model (CanESM2). Three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) were used from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This study found that the soil temperature at this location may warm at 0.9 to 1.2 °C per decade at various depths. Annual soil temperatures at all depths are projected to rise to above 0 °C for the 1997–2026 period for all climate scenarios. The melting soil poses a hazard to the airport infrastructure and will require adaptation measures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Andrew C. W. Leung William A. Gough Tanzina Mohsin |
author_facet |
Andrew C. W. Leung William A. Gough Tanzina Mohsin |
author_sort |
Andrew C. W. Leung |
title |
Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure |
title_short |
Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure |
title_full |
Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure |
title_fullStr |
Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysing Historical and Modelling Future Soil Temperature at Kuujjuaq, Quebec (Canada): Implications on Aviation Infrastructure |
title_sort |
analysing historical and modelling future soil temperature at kuujjuaq, quebec (canada): implications on aviation infrastructure |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006 https://doaj.org/article/b03fcf2337e34c8f86fb4cf8daea42c5 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-68.398,-68.398,58.100,58.100) |
geographic |
Canada Kuujjuaq |
geographic_facet |
Canada Kuujjuaq |
genre |
Kuujjuaq |
genre_facet |
Kuujjuaq |
op_source |
Forecasting, Vol 4, Iss 6, Pp 95-125 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/1/6 https://doaj.org/toc/2571-9394 doi:10.3390/forecast4010006 2571-9394 https://doaj.org/article/b03fcf2337e34c8f86fb4cf8daea42c5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4010006 |
container_title |
Forecasting |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
95 |
op_container_end_page |
125 |
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1766060400969777152 |