Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the...
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2021
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020024 https://doaj.org/article/b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f 2023-05-15T17:34:09+02:00 Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère 2021-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020024 https://doaj.org/article/b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/2/2/24 https://doaj.org/toc/2673-1924 doi:10.3390/oceans2020024 2673-1924 https://doaj.org/article/b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f Oceans, Vol 2, Iss 24, Pp 429-447 (2021) tropical cyclones easterly waves future changes in rainfall changes in tropical cyclogenesis Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020024 2022-12-31T10:25:56Z Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Oceans 2 2 429 447 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tropical cyclones easterly waves future changes in rainfall changes in tropical cyclogenesis Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
tropical cyclones easterly waves future changes in rainfall changes in tropical cyclogenesis Oceanography GC1-1581 Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclones easterly waves future changes in rainfall changes in tropical cyclogenesis Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère |
author_facet |
Christian Dominguez James M. Done Cindy L. Bruyère |
author_sort |
Christian Dominguez |
title |
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
title_short |
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
title_full |
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
title_fullStr |
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America |
title_sort |
future changes in tropical cyclone and easterly wave characteristics over tropical north america |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020024 https://doaj.org/article/b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Oceans, Vol 2, Iss 24, Pp 429-447 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/2/2/24 https://doaj.org/toc/2673-1924 doi:10.3390/oceans2020024 2673-1924 https://doaj.org/article/b01d5bab17774dc2b8bae6af91acee0f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/oceans2020024 |
container_title |
Oceans |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
429 |
op_container_end_page |
447 |
_version_ |
1766132903208550400 |