Priority Development Areas in the Context of the Economic Security of Macro-Region

• Published in: Economy of Region
• Main Authors: Valery Petrovich Chichkanov, Lyubov Aleksandrovna Belyaevskaya-Plotnik
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; Russian
• Published: Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch 2018
• Subjects: priority development areas; economic security; macro-region; Arctic zone of the Russian Federation; the Far East; Primorsky Krai; trend forecast; assessment of the efficiency of priority development areas; indicators of the effectiveness of priority development areas; correlation and regression analysis; Regional economics. Space in economics; HT388; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.17059/2018–1–18; https://doaj.org/article/aff3ad0352584380aa39a7231b61c07b

In March 2017, after the adoption of the Russian Federation Economic Security Strategy until 2030, the need for strengthening the security of the subjects of the Russian Federation including macro-regions became relevant. In this aspect, the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation deserves special attention as it is a strategically important not only for economic, but also the national security of the country. Therefore, at the present stage of the state development, the substantiation of the special measures for the stimulation of the macro-region’s development to ensure its economic security is a relevant and priority task. The authors have analysed the intermediate results of some priority development areas since their creation in 2014. We have concluded that not enough time has passed to estimate whether this mechanism was effective or not in stimulating the regional growth and development of the business. Therefore, despite the traditional financial indicators of investment efficiency, we have included the estimation of quantitative change of one productive indicator depending on the change of a number of the parameters influencing this indicator in the assessment of the efficiency of priority development areas. We have estimated this quantitative change by means of the instruments of correlation and regression, and trend modelling. To apply this approach, we have designed a dependency model of the index of industrial production of Primorsky Krai as one of the indicators of the Economic Security Strategy on revealed factors, which cause the growth or decrease of this index. The economic interpretation of the model outputs consists in the following. When investments into fixed capital increase by 1 million rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region grows by 0,9 %. When the indicator of the real monetary income of the population increases by 1 thousand rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region decreases by 1,36 %. Trend forecasting has allowed to define such indicators as the ...