Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes
Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes fro...
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Cambridge University Press
2020
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:afac53dbe5f84f96b263954ea48a95c5 2023-05-15T13:55:23+02:00 Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes Sebastián Echeverría Mark B. Hausner Nicolás Bambach Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Suárez 2020-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 https://doaj.org/article/afac53dbe5f84f96b263954ea48a95c5 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143019000789/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.78 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/afac53dbe5f84f96b263954ea48a95c5 Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 11-24 (2020) Climate change ice and climate lake ice energy balance ice-sheet modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 2023-03-12T01:30:57Z Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover – was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake's thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain perennial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephemeral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Bonney ENVELOPE(162.417,162.417,-77.717,-77.717) Crooked Lake ENVELOPE(78.382,78.382,-68.617,-68.617) Lake Bonney ENVELOPE(-25.588,-25.588,-80.361,-80.361) Journal of Glaciology 66 255 11 24 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change ice and climate lake ice energy balance ice-sheet modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Climate change ice and climate lake ice energy balance ice-sheet modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Sebastián Echeverría Mark B. Hausner Nicolás Bambach Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Suárez Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
topic_facet |
Climate change ice and climate lake ice energy balance ice-sheet modeling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Antarctic lakes with perennial ice covers provide the opportunity to investigate in-lake processes without direct atmospheric interaction, and to study their ice-cover sensitivity to climate conditions. In this study, a numerical model – driven by radiative, atmospheric and turbulent heat fluxes from the water body beneath the ice cover – was implemented to investigate the impact of climate change on the ice covers from two Antarctic lakes: west lobe of Lake Bonney (WLB) and Crooked Lake. Model results agreed well with measured ice thicknesses of both lakes (WLB – RMSE= 0.11 m over 16 years of data; Crooked Lake – RMSE= 0.07 m over 1 year of data), and had acceptable results with measured ablation data at WLB (RMSE= 0.28 m over 6 years). The differences between measured and modeled ablation occurred because the model does not consider interannual variability of the ice optical properties and seasonal changes of the lake's thermal structure. Results indicate that projected summer air temperatures will increase the ice-cover annual melting in WLB by 2050, but that the ice cover will remain perennial through the end of this century. Contrarily, at Crooked Lake the ice cover becomes ephemeral most likely due to the increase in air temperatures. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sebastián Echeverría Mark B. Hausner Nicolás Bambach Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Suárez |
author_facet |
Sebastián Echeverría Mark B. Hausner Nicolás Bambach Sebastián Vicuña Francisco Suárez |
author_sort |
Sebastián Echeverría |
title |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_short |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_full |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_fullStr |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling present and future ice covers in two Antarctic lakes |
title_sort |
modeling present and future ice covers in two antarctic lakes |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 https://doaj.org/article/afac53dbe5f84f96b263954ea48a95c5 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(162.417,162.417,-77.717,-77.717) ENVELOPE(78.382,78.382,-68.617,-68.617) ENVELOPE(-25.588,-25.588,-80.361,-80.361) |
geographic |
Antarctic Bonney Crooked Lake Lake Bonney |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Bonney Crooked Lake Lake Bonney |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Vol 66, Pp 11-24 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143019000789/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2019.78 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/afac53dbe5f84f96b263954ea48a95c5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.78 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
255 |
container_start_page |
11 |
op_container_end_page |
24 |
_version_ |
1766261996410372096 |