Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China
Abstract Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecologic...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:af88684efcdf48d09af229a2b2e8f104 2023-05-15T17:58:08+02:00 Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China Chen Chen Xi‐juan Zhang Ji‐zhong Wan Fei‐fei Gao Shu‐sheng Yuan Tian‐tian Sun Zhen‐dong Ni Jing‐hua Yu 2022-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://doaj.org/article/af88684efcdf48d09af229a2b2e8f104 EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.9374 https://doaj.org/article/af88684efcdf48d09af229a2b2e8f104 Ecology and Evolution, Vol 12, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) climate change Larix gmelinii associations Maxent spatial distribution temperature Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 2022-12-30T21:10:18Z Abstract Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi‐classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Ecology and Evolution 12 10 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change Larix gmelinii associations Maxent spatial distribution temperature Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
climate change Larix gmelinii associations Maxent spatial distribution temperature Ecology QH540-549.5 Chen Chen Xi‐juan Zhang Ji‐zhong Wan Fei‐fei Gao Shu‐sheng Yuan Tian‐tian Sun Zhen‐dong Ni Jing‐hua Yu Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
topic_facet |
climate change Larix gmelinii associations Maxent spatial distribution temperature Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Abstract Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve our understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats and studying the association level is important for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have only focused on suitable distribution areas for species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species that occurs along the southern margin of the Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used a Maxent model and the ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We used the multi‐classification logistic regression analysis method to obtain the response of the suitable area change for the L. gmelinii alliance and associations to climate change under different climate scenarios. Results revealed that temperature is the most crucial factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. Different L. gmelinii associations should have different management measures based on the site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Chen Chen Xi‐juan Zhang Ji‐zhong Wan Fei‐fei Gao Shu‐sheng Yuan Tian‐tian Sun Zhen‐dong Ni Jing‐hua Yu |
author_facet |
Chen Chen Xi‐juan Zhang Ji‐zhong Wan Fei‐fei Gao Shu‐sheng Yuan Tian‐tian Sun Zhen‐dong Ni Jing‐hua Yu |
author_sort |
Chen Chen |
title |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_short |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_full |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_fullStr |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China |
title_sort |
predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: a case study on larix gmelinii in china |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://doaj.org/article/af88684efcdf48d09af229a2b2e8f104 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Ecology and Evolution, Vol 12, Iss 10, Pp n/a-n/a (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 https://doaj.org/toc/2045-7758 2045-7758 doi:10.1002/ece3.9374 https://doaj.org/article/af88684efcdf48d09af229a2b2e8f104 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9374 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
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1766166677877161984 |