Radiative Effects and Costing Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Albedo Changes

• Published in: Remote Sensing
• Main Authors: Hairui Hao, Bo Su, Shiwei Liu, Wenqin Zhuo
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: MDPI AG 2023
• Subjects: Arctic; surface albedo; sea ice radiative forcing; radiative kernel; substitute cost method; economic cost; Science; Q; albedo; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15040970; https://doaj.org/article/ae89b17e9a554f90985c07a71ac5cda7

The rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice cover and thickness diminishes the surface albedo, which increases the ocean’s absorption of solar heat and exacerbates the Arctic amplification effect. According to the most recent research from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR6), the extent of summer sea ice is anticipated to decrease below 1 million km 2 by the 2050s as a result of the extreme climate. Nevertheless, past and future changes in sea ice albedo radiative forcing and the resulting economic cost remain to be explored in systematic and multi-disciplinary manners. In this study, we first analyze the evolution of Arctic sea ice radiative forcing (SIRF) from 1982 to 2100 using a radiative kernel method based on albedo data from the Polar Pathfinder-Extent (APP-x) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). Then, the SIRF is converted to CO 2 equivalent emissions via the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (DICE) model. Finally, the associated costs are calculated using the substitute cost method, based on the social cost of carbon to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. The results show that the average Arctic SIRF was −0.75 ± 0.1 <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi><mo>·</mo><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></semantics></math> between 1982 and 2020, and increased by 0.12 <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><mrow><mrow><mo> </mo><mi mathvariant="normal">W</mi></mrow><mo>·</mo><msup><mi mathvariant="normal">m</mi><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></semantics></math> during this period. The SIRF in April–June ...