Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions
Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ae0302884c8846f19e1f2034796f76c8 2023-05-15T16:02:56+02:00 Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions I. Krylenko Yu. Motovilov E. Antokhina V. Zhuk G. Surkova 2015-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 https://doaj.org/article/ae0302884c8846f19e1f2034796f76c8 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.proc-iahs.net/368/156/2015/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2199-8981 https://doaj.org/toc/2199-899X doi:10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 2199-8981 2199-899X https://doaj.org/article/ae0302884c8846f19e1f2034796f76c8 Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol 368, Pp 156-161 (2015) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 2022-12-31T09:25:18Z Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature. Article in Journal/Newspaper dvina Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 368 156 161 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 I. Krylenko Yu. Motovilov E. Antokhina V. Zhuk G. Surkova Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Physically-based distributed modelling under changing climatic conditions has been carried out for the Northern Dvina River basin using the ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics). The parameters of the model have been adjusted through calibration against runoff hydrographs observed for the period 2000–2009. Validation of the model has been performed for the period of 1970–1989. Both sensitivity analysis and scenario approaches (based on the CMIP3 projections) have been applied to assess possible hydrological consequences of climate change in the basin. It has been shown that for greenhouse gases emissions A2 scenario, averaged for 11 climate models, annual runoff will not change significantly for the future 50 years. But due to increasing of winter precipitation by up to 15%, the volume of flow in the flood period could increase by up to 20%. Earlier beginning of the flood season is expected because of rising of the air temperature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
I. Krylenko Yu. Motovilov E. Antokhina V. Zhuk G. Surkova |
author_facet |
I. Krylenko Yu. Motovilov E. Antokhina V. Zhuk G. Surkova |
author_sort |
I. Krylenko |
title |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_short |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_full |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_fullStr |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
title_sort |
physically-based distributed modelling of river runoff under changing climate conditions |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 https://doaj.org/article/ae0302884c8846f19e1f2034796f76c8 |
genre |
dvina |
genre_facet |
dvina |
op_source |
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol 368, Pp 156-161 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://www.proc-iahs.net/368/156/2015/piahs-368-156-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2199-8981 https://doaj.org/toc/2199-899X doi:10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 2199-8981 2199-899X https://doaj.org/article/ae0302884c8846f19e1f2034796f76c8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-368-156-2015 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
container_volume |
368 |
container_start_page |
156 |
op_container_end_page |
161 |
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1766398602032185344 |