The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States.
BACKGROUND:As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios. METHOD...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ad12d127a6a147ca943e23c48ae3f348 2023-05-15T15:11:58+02:00 The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. Bruce Y Lee Jorge A Alfaro-Murillo Alyssa S Parpia Lindsey Asti Patrick T Wedlock Peter J Hotez Alison P Galvani 2017-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531 https://doaj.org/article/ad12d127a6a147ca943e23c48ae3f348 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5407573?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531 https://doaj.org/article/ad12d127a6a147ca943e23c48ae3f348 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 4, p e0005531 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531 2022-12-31T11:55:26Z BACKGROUND:As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:To inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances. In order to accommodate a wide range of possibilities, different scenarios explored the effects of varying the attack rate from 0.01% to 10%. Across the six states, an attack rate of 0.01% is estimated to cost $183.4 million to society ($117.1 million in direct medical costs and $66.3 million in productivity losses), 0.025% would result in $198.6 million ($119.4 million and $79.2 million), 0.10% would result in $274.6 million ($130.8 million and $143.8 million) and 1% would result in $1.2 billion ($268.0 million and $919.2 million). CONCLUSIONS:Our model and study show how direct medical costs, Medicaid costs, productivity losses, and total costs to society may vary with different attack rates across the six states and the circumstances at which they may exceed certain thresholds (e.g., Zika prevention and control funding allocations that are being debated by the US government). A Zika attack rate of 0.3% across the six states at greatest risk of Zika infection, would result in total costs that exceed $0.5 billion, an attack rate of 1% would exceed $1 billion, and an attack rate of 2% would exceed $2 billion. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Alabama Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 4 e0005531 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Bruce Y Lee Jorge A Alfaro-Murillo Alyssa S Parpia Lindsey Asti Patrick T Wedlock Peter J Hotez Alison P Galvani The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:To inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances. In order to accommodate a wide range of possibilities, different scenarios explored the effects of varying the attack rate from 0.01% to 10%. Across the six states, an attack rate of 0.01% is estimated to cost $183.4 million to society ($117.1 million in direct medical costs and $66.3 million in productivity losses), 0.025% would result in $198.6 million ($119.4 million and $79.2 million), 0.10% would result in $274.6 million ($130.8 million and $143.8 million) and 1% would result in $1.2 billion ($268.0 million and $919.2 million). CONCLUSIONS:Our model and study show how direct medical costs, Medicaid costs, productivity losses, and total costs to society may vary with different attack rates across the six states and the circumstances at which they may exceed certain thresholds (e.g., Zika prevention and control funding allocations that are being debated by the US government). A Zika attack rate of 0.3% across the six states at greatest risk of Zika infection, would result in total costs that exceed $0.5 billion, an attack rate of 1% would exceed $1 billion, and an attack rate of 2% would exceed $2 billion. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bruce Y Lee Jorge A Alfaro-Murillo Alyssa S Parpia Lindsey Asti Patrick T Wedlock Peter J Hotez Alison P Galvani |
author_facet |
Bruce Y Lee Jorge A Alfaro-Murillo Alyssa S Parpia Lindsey Asti Patrick T Wedlock Peter J Hotez Alison P Galvani |
author_sort |
Bruce Y Lee |
title |
The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. |
title_short |
The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. |
title_full |
The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. |
title_fullStr |
The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States. |
title_sort |
potential economic burden of zika in the continental united states. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531 https://doaj.org/article/ad12d127a6a147ca943e23c48ae3f348 |
geographic |
Alabama Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Alabama Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 4, p e0005531 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5407573?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531 https://doaj.org/article/ad12d127a6a147ca943e23c48ae3f348 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005531 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
e0005531 |
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1766342736639688704 |