Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, a...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:acfd3ad513d7416ca3fa88d57d0881ae 2024-02-11T10:00:52+01:00 Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems Akihiko Ito Christopher P O Reyer Anne Gädeke Philippe Ciais Jinfeng Chang Min Chen Louis François Matthew Forrest Thomas Hickler Sebastian Ostberg Hao Shi Wim Thiery Hanqin Tian 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b https://doaj.org/article/acfd3ad513d7416ca3fa88d57d0881ae EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/acfd3ad513d7416ca3fa88d57d0881ae Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 4, p 044006 (2020) biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b 2024-01-21T01:41:10Z Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 15 4 044006 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Akihiko Ito Christopher P O Reyer Anne Gädeke Philippe Ciais Jinfeng Chang Min Chen Louis François Matthew Forrest Thomas Hickler Sebastian Ostberg Hao Shi Wim Thiery Hanqin Tian Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
topic_facet |
biome sector ISIMIP2b northern high latitudes Paris agreement climatic impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Akihiko Ito Christopher P O Reyer Anne Gädeke Philippe Ciais Jinfeng Chang Min Chen Louis François Matthew Forrest Thomas Hickler Sebastian Ostberg Hao Shi Wim Thiery Hanqin Tian |
author_facet |
Akihiko Ito Christopher P O Reyer Anne Gädeke Philippe Ciais Jinfeng Chang Min Chen Louis François Matthew Forrest Thomas Hickler Sebastian Ostberg Hao Shi Wim Thiery Hanqin Tian |
author_sort |
Akihiko Ito |
title |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_short |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_fullStr |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
title_sort |
pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b https://doaj.org/article/acfd3ad513d7416ca3fa88d57d0881ae |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming permafrost Tundra |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 4, p 044006 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/acfd3ad513d7416ca3fa88d57d0881ae |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
044006 |
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1790596585472655360 |