Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China
Abstract Intensifying droughts under climatic warming are of widespread concern owing to their devastating impacts on water resources, societies and ecosystems. However, the effects of exogeneous drivers on regional droughts remain poorly understood. Using the Lagrangian method, atmospheric reanalys...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:aca2c28f25804c67b3a5194c37258890 2024-01-28T10:04:53+01:00 Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China Gang Wang Qiang Zhang Yadu Pokhrel Daniel Farinotti Jida Wang Vijay P. Singh Chong-Yu Xu 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 https://doaj.org/article/aca2c28f25804c67b3a5194c37258890 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/aca2c28f25804c67b3a5194c37258890 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 2023-12-31T01:48:59Z Abstract Intensifying droughts under climatic warming are of widespread concern owing to their devastating impacts on water resources, societies and ecosystems. However, the effects of exogeneous drivers on regional droughts remain poorly understood. Using the Lagrangian method, atmospheric reanalysis data and climate projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we show how exogenous precipitation minus evaporation (PME) deficit drives droughts across China. More specifically, we demonstrate that four distinct trajectories of such exogenous PME deficit fuel regional droughts. Three of these trajectories relate to oceanic PME deficit originating from the North Atlantic, eastern Bering Sea and Indian Ocean, and one trajectory characterizes exogenous terrestrial PME deficit from the Siberian Plateau. We show that during 1980–2020, droughts induced by exogenous PME deficit account for 45% of all droughts that occurred in China’s coastal region, and for 7% of all droughts in the northwestern regions. Under climate scenario SSP245 (SSP585), limiting warming to 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels could avoid 60% (84%) of exogenous drought exposure. This would in turn reduce population exposure by 40% (49%), and economic exposure by 73% (66%). Our study unravels how exogenous PME deficit drives droughts in China, underscoring the role that external drivers have on regional droughts and associated future prediction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Bering Sea North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Bering Sea Indian npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Gang Wang Qiang Zhang Yadu Pokhrel Daniel Farinotti Jida Wang Vijay P. Singh Chong-Yu Xu Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract Intensifying droughts under climatic warming are of widespread concern owing to their devastating impacts on water resources, societies and ecosystems. However, the effects of exogeneous drivers on regional droughts remain poorly understood. Using the Lagrangian method, atmospheric reanalysis data and climate projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we show how exogenous precipitation minus evaporation (PME) deficit drives droughts across China. More specifically, we demonstrate that four distinct trajectories of such exogenous PME deficit fuel regional droughts. Three of these trajectories relate to oceanic PME deficit originating from the North Atlantic, eastern Bering Sea and Indian Ocean, and one trajectory characterizes exogenous terrestrial PME deficit from the Siberian Plateau. We show that during 1980–2020, droughts induced by exogenous PME deficit account for 45% of all droughts that occurred in China’s coastal region, and for 7% of all droughts in the northwestern regions. Under climate scenario SSP245 (SSP585), limiting warming to 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels could avoid 60% (84%) of exogenous drought exposure. This would in turn reduce population exposure by 40% (49%), and economic exposure by 73% (66%). Our study unravels how exogenous PME deficit drives droughts in China, underscoring the role that external drivers have on regional droughts and associated future prediction. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gang Wang Qiang Zhang Yadu Pokhrel Daniel Farinotti Jida Wang Vijay P. Singh Chong-Yu Xu |
author_facet |
Gang Wang Qiang Zhang Yadu Pokhrel Daniel Farinotti Jida Wang Vijay P. Singh Chong-Yu Xu |
author_sort |
Gang Wang |
title |
Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China |
title_short |
Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China |
title_full |
Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China |
title_fullStr |
Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across China |
title_sort |
exogenous moisture deficit fuels drought risks across china |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 https://doaj.org/article/aca2c28f25804c67b3a5194c37258890 |
geographic |
Bering Sea Indian |
geographic_facet |
Bering Sea Indian |
genre |
Bering Sea North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Bering Sea North Atlantic |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/aca2c28f25804c67b3a5194c37258890 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00543-8 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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6 |
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1 |
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1789330851508518912 |