Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory
Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:abb3ce46366b43cbbb261f16a9b1e253 2023-09-05T13:12:08+02:00 Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory Gonéri Le Cozannet Jean-Charles Manceau Jeremy Rohmer 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 https://doaj.org/article/abb3ce46366b43cbbb261f16a9b1e253 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/abb3ce46366b43cbbb261f16a9b1e253 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 1, p 014012 (2017) sea-level rise possibility theory epistemic uncertainties probabilistic sea-level rise projections coastal impacts climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 2023-08-13T00:37:40Z Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. Moreover, additional physical limits to future sea-level rise have been established, although approximately. However, many probability functions can comply with this imprecise knowledge. In this contribution, we provide a framework based on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory) to model the uncertainties in sea-level rise projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results provide a concise representation of uncertainties in future sea-level rise and of their intrinsically imprecise nature, including a maximum bound of the total uncertainty. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections, which underestimate the expectancy of damages and adaptation needs compared to probabilistic laws. However, we show that the probability functions used so-far have only explored a rather conservative subset of sea-level projections compliant with the IPCC. As a consequence, coastal impact studies relying on these probabilistic sea-level projections are expected to underestimate the possibility of large damages and adaptation needs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Environmental Research Letters 12 1 014012 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
sea-level rise possibility theory epistemic uncertainties probabilistic sea-level rise projections coastal impacts climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
sea-level rise possibility theory epistemic uncertainties probabilistic sea-level rise projections coastal impacts climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Gonéri Le Cozannet Jean-Charles Manceau Jeremy Rohmer Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
topic_facet |
sea-level rise possibility theory epistemic uncertainties probabilistic sea-level rise projections coastal impacts climate change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. Moreover, additional physical limits to future sea-level rise have been established, although approximately. However, many probability functions can comply with this imprecise knowledge. In this contribution, we provide a framework based on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory) to model the uncertainties in sea-level rise projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results provide a concise representation of uncertainties in future sea-level rise and of their intrinsically imprecise nature, including a maximum bound of the total uncertainty. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections, which underestimate the expectancy of damages and adaptation needs compared to probabilistic laws. However, we show that the probability functions used so-far have only explored a rather conservative subset of sea-level projections compliant with the IPCC. As a consequence, coastal impact studies relying on these probabilistic sea-level projections are expected to underestimate the possibility of large damages and adaptation needs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gonéri Le Cozannet Jean-Charles Manceau Jeremy Rohmer |
author_facet |
Gonéri Le Cozannet Jean-Charles Manceau Jeremy Rohmer |
author_sort |
Gonéri Le Cozannet |
title |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_short |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_full |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_fullStr |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_sort |
bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 https://doaj.org/article/abb3ce46366b43cbbb261f16a9b1e253 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 1, p 014012 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/abb3ce46366b43cbbb261f16a9b1e253 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014012 |
_version_ |
1776199086102282240 |