Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector
Seasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we a...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd 2023-09-05T13:21:21+02:00 Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa https://doaj.org/article/abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 2, p 024035 (2021) seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern atmospheric relaxation stratosphere Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2021 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa 2023-08-13T00:37:20Z Seasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we assess the role of the tropical troposphere and the extra-tropical stratosphere in driving North Atlantic-European wintertime sea level pressure, using numerical experiments in which conditions in these regions are constrained to be similar to observational reanalyses. We show that both of these remote regions play a role in influencing surface circulation. In particular, the East Atlantic Pattern—the second most important mode of regional winter variability after the NAO—is linked to convective anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical and stratospheric influences are shown to lead to the reproduction of observed large-scale pressure patterns in the majority of winters, but often by a single driver rather than a blend of both. We argue that while stratospheric influences are well represented, tropical influences are underrepresented in winter predictions. These results highlight tropical Atlantic predictability as an important focus for further research. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 16 2 024035 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern atmospheric relaxation stratosphere Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern atmospheric relaxation stratosphere Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
topic_facet |
seasonal forecasting North Atlantic Oscillation East Atlantic Pattern atmospheric relaxation stratosphere Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Seasonal forecast systems have demonstrated significant skill in forecasting the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent years. This skill is a result of influences that have remote origins, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Here we assess the role of the tropical troposphere and the extra-tropical stratosphere in driving North Atlantic-European wintertime sea level pressure, using numerical experiments in which conditions in these regions are constrained to be similar to observational reanalyses. We show that both of these remote regions play a role in influencing surface circulation. In particular, the East Atlantic Pattern—the second most important mode of regional winter variability after the NAO—is linked to convective anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical and stratospheric influences are shown to lead to the reproduction of observed large-scale pressure patterns in the majority of winters, but often by a single driver rather than a blend of both. We argue that while stratospheric influences are well represented, tropical influences are underrepresented in winter predictions. These results highlight tropical Atlantic predictability as an important focus for further research. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife |
author_facet |
Anna Maidens Jeff R Knight Adam A Scaife |
author_sort |
Anna Maidens |
title |
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
title_short |
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
title_full |
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
title_fullStr |
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector |
title_sort |
tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the north atlantic sector |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa https://doaj.org/article/abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 16, Iss 2, p 024035 (2021) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/abaf54505d92412a8cb2247b48f376dd |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd8aa |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
024035 |
_version_ |
1776201959632535552 |