Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics
The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ab69b01f361f4c22be422f6c59b4d2cc 2023-05-15T13:22:11+02:00 Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics S. Adhikari E. R. Ivins E. Larour H. Seroussi M. Morlighem S. Nowicki 2014-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ab69b01f361f4c22be422f6c59b4d2cc EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.solid-earth.net/5/569/2014/se-5-569-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1869-9510 https://doaj.org/toc/1869-9529 1869-9510 1869-9529 doi:10.5194/se-5-569-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ab69b01f361f4c22be422f6c59b4d2cc Solid Earth, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 569-584 (2014) Geology QE1-996.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014 2022-12-31T01:06:06Z The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr −1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amery Ice Shelf Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Pine Island Bay Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet Amery ENVELOPE(-94.063,-94.063,56.565,56.565) Amery Ice Shelf ENVELOPE(71.000,71.000,-69.750,-69.750) Island Bay ENVELOPE(-109.085,-109.085,59.534,59.534) Pine Island Bay ENVELOPE(-102.000,-102.000,-74.750,-74.750) Solid Earth 5 1 569 584 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 S. Adhikari E. R. Ivins E. Larour H. Seroussi M. Morlighem S. Nowicki Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 Stratigraphy QE640-699 |
description |
The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr −1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Adhikari E. R. Ivins E. Larour H. Seroussi M. Morlighem S. Nowicki |
author_facet |
S. Adhikari E. R. Ivins E. Larour H. Seroussi M. Morlighem S. Nowicki |
author_sort |
S. Adhikari |
title |
Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
title_short |
Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
title_full |
Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
title_sort |
future antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ab69b01f361f4c22be422f6c59b4d2cc |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-94.063,-94.063,56.565,56.565) ENVELOPE(71.000,71.000,-69.750,-69.750) ENVELOPE(-109.085,-109.085,59.534,59.534) ENVELOPE(-102.000,-102.000,-74.750,-74.750) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet Amery Amery Ice Shelf Island Bay Pine Island Bay |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet East Antarctic Ice Sheet Amery Amery Ice Shelf Island Bay Pine Island Bay |
genre |
Amery Ice Shelf Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Pine Island Bay |
genre_facet |
Amery Ice Shelf Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Pine Island Bay |
op_source |
Solid Earth, Vol 5, Iss 1, Pp 569-584 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.solid-earth.net/5/569/2014/se-5-569-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1869-9510 https://doaj.org/toc/1869-9529 1869-9510 1869-9529 doi:10.5194/se-5-569-2014 https://doaj.org/article/ab69b01f361f4c22be422f6c59b4d2cc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-569-2014 |
container_title |
Solid Earth |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
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569 |
op_container_end_page |
584 |
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1766363632583573504 |