Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021
Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO 2 and non-CO 2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in C...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ab128052834348d2bd791d8dcce30884 2023-05-15T17:31:37+02:00 Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 R. Teoh U. Schumann E. Gryspeerdt M. Shapiro J. Molloy G. Koudis C. Voigt M. E. J. Stettler 2022-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022 https://doaj.org/article/ab128052834348d2bd791d8dcce30884 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/10919/2022/acp-22-10919-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/ab128052834348d2bd791d8dcce30884 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 22, Pp 10919-10935 (2022) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022 2022-12-30T22:14:28Z Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO 2 and non-CO 2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in CO 2 ( +3.13 % yr −1 ) and nitrogen oxide emissions ( +4.5 % yr −1 ) outpaced increases in flight distance ( +3.05 % yr −1 ). Over the same period, the annual mean contrail cirrus net RF (204–280 mW m −2 ) showed significant inter-annual variability caused by variations in meteorology. Responses to COVID-19 caused significant reductions in flight distance travelled ( −66 % ), CO 2 emissions ( −71 % ) and the contrail net RF ( −66 % ) compared with the prior 1-year period. Around 12 % of all flights in this region cause 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, and the factors associated with strongly warming/cooling contrails include seasonal changes in meteorology and radiation, time of day, background cloud fields, and engine-specific non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions. Strongly warming contrails in this region are generally formed in wintertime, close to the tropopause, between 15:00 and 04:00 UTC, and above low-level clouds. The most strongly cooling contrails occur in the spring, in the upper troposphere, between 06:00 and 15:00 UTC, and without lower-level clouds. Uncertainty in the contrail cirrus net RF (216–238 mW m −2 ) arising from meteorology in 2019 is smaller than the inter-annual variability. The contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to the humidity fields, followed by nvPM emissions and aircraft mass assumptions. This longitudinal evaluation of aviation contrail impacts contributes a quantified understanding of inter-annual variability and informs strategies for contrail mitigation. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 16 10919 10935 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
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Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 R. Teoh U. Schumann E. Gryspeerdt M. Shapiro J. Molloy G. Koudis C. Voigt M. E. J. Stettler Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO 2 and non-CO 2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in CO 2 ( +3.13 % yr −1 ) and nitrogen oxide emissions ( +4.5 % yr −1 ) outpaced increases in flight distance ( +3.05 % yr −1 ). Over the same period, the annual mean contrail cirrus net RF (204–280 mW m −2 ) showed significant inter-annual variability caused by variations in meteorology. Responses to COVID-19 caused significant reductions in flight distance travelled ( −66 % ), CO 2 emissions ( −71 % ) and the contrail net RF ( −66 % ) compared with the prior 1-year period. Around 12 % of all flights in this region cause 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, and the factors associated with strongly warming/cooling contrails include seasonal changes in meteorology and radiation, time of day, background cloud fields, and engine-specific non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions. Strongly warming contrails in this region are generally formed in wintertime, close to the tropopause, between 15:00 and 04:00 UTC, and above low-level clouds. The most strongly cooling contrails occur in the spring, in the upper troposphere, between 06:00 and 15:00 UTC, and without lower-level clouds. Uncertainty in the contrail cirrus net RF (216–238 mW m −2 ) arising from meteorology in 2019 is smaller than the inter-annual variability. The contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to the humidity fields, followed by nvPM emissions and aircraft mass assumptions. This longitudinal evaluation of aviation contrail impacts contributes a quantified understanding of inter-annual variability and informs strategies for contrail mitigation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
R. Teoh U. Schumann E. Gryspeerdt M. Shapiro J. Molloy G. Koudis C. Voigt M. E. J. Stettler |
author_facet |
R. Teoh U. Schumann E. Gryspeerdt M. Shapiro J. Molloy G. Koudis C. Voigt M. E. J. Stettler |
author_sort |
R. Teoh |
title |
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
title_short |
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
title_full |
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
title_fullStr |
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
title_sort |
aviation contrail climate effects in the north atlantic from 2016 to 2021 |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022 https://doaj.org/article/ab128052834348d2bd791d8dcce30884 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 22, Pp 10919-10935 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/10919/2022/acp-22-10919-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/ab128052834348d2bd791d8dcce30884 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
10919 |
op_container_end_page |
10935 |
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1766129297837260800 |