Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d 2023-05-15T18:32:27+02:00 Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek 2018-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 https://doaj.org/article/aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1195/2018/tc-12-1195-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 1195-1209 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 2022-12-31T01:17:22Z Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Glacial Lake ENVELOPE(-129.463,-129.463,58.259,58.259) The Cryosphere 12 4 1195 1209 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek |
author_facet |
S. Harrison J. S. Kargel C. Huggel J. Reynolds D. H. Shugar R. A. Betts A. Emmer N. Glasser U. K. Haritashya J. Klimeš L. Reinhardt Y. Schaub A. Wiltshire D. Regmi V. Vilímek |
author_sort |
S. Harrison |
title |
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
title_short |
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
title_full |
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
title_fullStr |
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
title_sort |
climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 https://doaj.org/article/aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-129.463,-129.463,58.259,58.259) |
geographic |
Glacial Lake |
geographic_facet |
Glacial Lake |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 1195-1209 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1195/2018/tc-12-1195-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/aae528b7547247dd8807d8ec380ab77d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1195 |
op_container_end_page |
1209 |
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1766216562440667136 |