Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature
Although the seasonal prediction skill of climate models has improved significantly in recent decades, the prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the dominant climate mode over the Northern Hemisphere, remains poor. Additionally, the local representation of AO impacts has diverged from obs...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:aac302e7e9204b0ab1a953b89bee48ef 2024-09-15T18:35:30+00:00 Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature Ji-Han Sim MinHo Kwon Yeon-Soo Jang Ha-Rim Kim Ju Heon Kim Gun-Hwan Yang Jee-Hoon Jeong Baek-Min Kim 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b https://doaj.org/article/aac302e7e9204b0ab1a953b89bee48ef EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/aac302e7e9204b0ab1a953b89bee48ef Environmental Research Letters, Vol 19, Iss 7, p 074039 (2024) Arctic Oscillation surface air temperature multiple linear regression seasonal forecast Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b 2024-08-05T17:49:09Z Although the seasonal prediction skill of climate models has improved significantly in recent decades, the prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the dominant climate mode over the Northern Hemisphere, remains poor. Additionally, the local representation of AO impacts has diverged from observations, which limits seasonal prediction skill of climate models. In this study, we attempted to improve prediction skill of surface air temperature (SAT) with two post-processing on dynamical model’s seasonal forecast: (1) correction of the AO impact on SAT pattern, and (2) correction of AO index (AOI). The first correction involved replacing the inaccurately simulated impact of AO on SAT with that observed. For the second correction, we employed a empirical prediction model of AOI based on multiple linear regression model based on three precursors: summer sea surface temperature, autumn sea-ice concentration, and autumn snow cover extent. The application of the first correction led to a decrease in prediction skills. However, a significant improvement in SAT prediction skills is achieved when both corrections are applied. The average correlation coefficients for the North America and Eurasian regions increased from 0.23 and 0.06 to 0.28 and 0.30, respectively. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 19 7 074039 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic Oscillation surface air temperature multiple linear regression seasonal forecast Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Oscillation surface air temperature multiple linear regression seasonal forecast Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Ji-Han Sim MinHo Kwon Yeon-Soo Jang Ha-Rim Kim Ju Heon Kim Gun-Hwan Yang Jee-Hoon Jeong Baek-Min Kim Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature |
topic_facet |
Arctic Oscillation surface air temperature multiple linear regression seasonal forecast Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Although the seasonal prediction skill of climate models has improved significantly in recent decades, the prediction skill of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the dominant climate mode over the Northern Hemisphere, remains poor. Additionally, the local representation of AO impacts has diverged from observations, which limits seasonal prediction skill of climate models. In this study, we attempted to improve prediction skill of surface air temperature (SAT) with two post-processing on dynamical model’s seasonal forecast: (1) correction of the AO impact on SAT pattern, and (2) correction of AO index (AOI). The first correction involved replacing the inaccurately simulated impact of AO on SAT with that observed. For the second correction, we employed a empirical prediction model of AOI based on multiple linear regression model based on three precursors: summer sea surface temperature, autumn sea-ice concentration, and autumn snow cover extent. The application of the first correction led to a decrease in prediction skills. However, a significant improvement in SAT prediction skills is achieved when both corrections are applied. The average correlation coefficients for the North America and Eurasian regions increased from 0.23 and 0.06 to 0.28 and 0.30, respectively. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ji-Han Sim MinHo Kwon Yeon-Soo Jang Ha-Rim Kim Ju Heon Kim Gun-Hwan Yang Jee-Hoon Jeong Baek-Min Kim |
author_facet |
Ji-Han Sim MinHo Kwon Yeon-Soo Jang Ha-Rim Kim Ju Heon Kim Gun-Hwan Yang Jee-Hoon Jeong Baek-Min Kim |
author_sort |
Ji-Han Sim |
title |
Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature |
title_short |
Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature |
title_full |
Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature |
title_fullStr |
Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature |
title_sort |
improving the seasonal forecast by utilizing the observed relationship between the arctic oscillation and northern hemisphere surface air temperature |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b https://doaj.org/article/aac302e7e9204b0ab1a953b89bee48ef |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 19, Iss 7, p 074039 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/aac302e7e9204b0ab1a953b89bee48ef |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
19 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
074039 |
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1810478694083330048 |