Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models
An approach has been proposed to analyze the simulated hydrological extreme uncertainty related to the internal variability of the atmosphere ("climate noise"), which is inherent to the climate system and considered as the lowest level of uncertainty achievable in climate impact studies. T...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:aa4849c557334d81b334c57e873f7fb0 2023-05-15T16:02:57+02:00 Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models A. N. Gelfan V. A. Semenov Yu. G. Motovilov 2015-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015 https://doaj.org/article/aa4849c557334d81b334c57e873f7fb0 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.proc-iahs.net/369/49/2015/piahs-369-49-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2199-8981 https://doaj.org/toc/2199-899X doi:10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015 2199-8981 2199-899X https://doaj.org/article/aa4849c557334d81b334c57e873f7fb0 Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol 369, Pp 49-53 (2015) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015 2022-12-30T23:22:04Z An approach has been proposed to analyze the simulated hydrological extreme uncertainty related to the internal variability of the atmosphere ("climate noise"), which is inherent to the climate system and considered as the lowest level of uncertainty achievable in climate impact studies. To assess the climate noise effect, numerical experiments were made with climate model ECHAM5 and hydrological model ECOMAG. The case study was carried out to Northern Dvina River basin (catchment area is 360 000 km 2 ), whose hydrological regime is characterised by extreme freshets during spring-summer snowmelt period. The climate noise was represented by ensemble ECHAM5 simulations (45 ensemble members) with identical historical boundary forcing and varying initial conditions. An ensemble of the ECHAM5-outputs for the period of 1979–2012 was used (after bias correction post-processing) as the hydrological model inputs, and the corresponding ensemble of 45 multi-year hydrographs was simulated. From this ensemble, we derived flood statistic uncertainty caused by the internal variability of the atmosphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper dvina Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 369 49 53 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. N. Gelfan V. A. Semenov Yu. G. Motovilov Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
An approach has been proposed to analyze the simulated hydrological extreme uncertainty related to the internal variability of the atmosphere ("climate noise"), which is inherent to the climate system and considered as the lowest level of uncertainty achievable in climate impact studies. To assess the climate noise effect, numerical experiments were made with climate model ECHAM5 and hydrological model ECOMAG. The case study was carried out to Northern Dvina River basin (catchment area is 360 000 km 2 ), whose hydrological regime is characterised by extreme freshets during spring-summer snowmelt period. The climate noise was represented by ensemble ECHAM5 simulations (45 ensemble members) with identical historical boundary forcing and varying initial conditions. An ensemble of the ECHAM5-outputs for the period of 1979–2012 was used (after bias correction post-processing) as the hydrological model inputs, and the corresponding ensemble of 45 multi-year hydrographs was simulated. From this ensemble, we derived flood statistic uncertainty caused by the internal variability of the atmosphere. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. N. Gelfan V. A. Semenov Yu. G. Motovilov |
author_facet |
A. N. Gelfan V. A. Semenov Yu. G. Motovilov |
author_sort |
A. N. Gelfan |
title |
Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
title_short |
Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
title_full |
Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
title_fullStr |
Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
title_sort |
climate noise effect on uncertainty of hydrological extremes: numerical experiments with hydrological and climate models |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015 https://doaj.org/article/aa4849c557334d81b334c57e873f7fb0 |
genre |
dvina |
genre_facet |
dvina |
op_source |
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol 369, Pp 49-53 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://www.proc-iahs.net/369/49/2015/piahs-369-49-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2199-8981 https://doaj.org/toc/2199-899X doi:10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015 2199-8981 2199-899X https://doaj.org/article/aa4849c557334d81b334c57e873f7fb0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-49-2015 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences |
container_volume |
369 |
container_start_page |
49 |
op_container_end_page |
53 |
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1766398608621436928 |