Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success
Modelling marine predator foraging habitats is a widespread research approach for projecting species responses to a rapidly changing Southern Ocean. Yet a key remaining challenge is to understand how changing prey biomass within foraging habitats could affect predator foraging success. Quantifying t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a92011c7eaf841f28e6f5b0ac87214fc 2023-05-15T16:08:23+02:00 Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success David B. Green Sophie Bestley Stuart P. Corney Rowan Trebilco Azwianewi B. Makhado Patrick Lehodey Anna Conchon Olivier Titaud Mark A. Hindell 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109943 https://doaj.org/article/a92011c7eaf841f28e6f5b0ac87214fc EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23000857 https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160X 1470-160X doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109943 https://doaj.org/article/a92011c7eaf841f28e6f5b0ac87214fc Ecological Indicators, Vol 147, Iss , Pp 109943- (2023) Macaroni penguin Mechanistic model Southern Ocean Marion Island Body mass Micronekton Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109943 2023-02-26T01:32:28Z Modelling marine predator foraging habitats is a widespread research approach for projecting species responses to a rapidly changing Southern Ocean. Yet a key remaining challenge is to understand how changing prey biomass within foraging habitats could affect predator foraging success. Quantifying this using observed prey information is challenging given a paucity of synoptic data. Here, we investigated whether prey biomass from a mechanistic model, could provide useful predictions of pre-breeding arrival body mass of macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) from Marion Island, a standard metric of predator foraging success, measured over a 20-year period. In testing this, we used a spatially iterative correlation approach between predicted prey biomass and observed penguin arrival body mass, allowing likely foraging areas to emerge in regions most frequently associated with significant correlations. We then considered whether the distribution of these emergent foraging areas is consistent with tracking-derived foraging distributions for this species and island. Our results indicated emergent foraging areas where prey biomass was most often correlated with arrival body mass were located within expected and observed foraging ranges. Further, variability in prey biomass, within these emergent foraging areas provided reasonable predictions of annual penguin arrival body mass and outperformed metrics of primary production within these foraging areas. Our findings demonstrate that mechanistic models can provide biologically meaningful representations of difficult-to-observe prey, and can predict predator foraging success. This work could improve understanding of predator responses in a changing habitat. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eudyptes chrysolophus Macaroni penguin Marion Island Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Southern Ocean Ecological Indicators 147 109943 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Macaroni penguin Mechanistic model Southern Ocean Marion Island Body mass Micronekton Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Macaroni penguin Mechanistic model Southern Ocean Marion Island Body mass Micronekton Ecology QH540-549.5 David B. Green Sophie Bestley Stuart P. Corney Rowan Trebilco Azwianewi B. Makhado Patrick Lehodey Anna Conchon Olivier Titaud Mark A. Hindell Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
topic_facet |
Macaroni penguin Mechanistic model Southern Ocean Marion Island Body mass Micronekton Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Modelling marine predator foraging habitats is a widespread research approach for projecting species responses to a rapidly changing Southern Ocean. Yet a key remaining challenge is to understand how changing prey biomass within foraging habitats could affect predator foraging success. Quantifying this using observed prey information is challenging given a paucity of synoptic data. Here, we investigated whether prey biomass from a mechanistic model, could provide useful predictions of pre-breeding arrival body mass of macaroni penguins (Eudyptes chrysolophus) from Marion Island, a standard metric of predator foraging success, measured over a 20-year period. In testing this, we used a spatially iterative correlation approach between predicted prey biomass and observed penguin arrival body mass, allowing likely foraging areas to emerge in regions most frequently associated with significant correlations. We then considered whether the distribution of these emergent foraging areas is consistent with tracking-derived foraging distributions for this species and island. Our results indicated emergent foraging areas where prey biomass was most often correlated with arrival body mass were located within expected and observed foraging ranges. Further, variability in prey biomass, within these emergent foraging areas provided reasonable predictions of annual penguin arrival body mass and outperformed metrics of primary production within these foraging areas. Our findings demonstrate that mechanistic models can provide biologically meaningful representations of difficult-to-observe prey, and can predict predator foraging success. This work could improve understanding of predator responses in a changing habitat. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
David B. Green Sophie Bestley Stuart P. Corney Rowan Trebilco Azwianewi B. Makhado Patrick Lehodey Anna Conchon Olivier Titaud Mark A. Hindell |
author_facet |
David B. Green Sophie Bestley Stuart P. Corney Rowan Trebilco Azwianewi B. Makhado Patrick Lehodey Anna Conchon Olivier Titaud Mark A. Hindell |
author_sort |
David B. Green |
title |
Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
title_short |
Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
title_full |
Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
title_fullStr |
Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
title_sort |
modelled prey fields predict marine predator foraging success |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109943 https://doaj.org/article/a92011c7eaf841f28e6f5b0ac87214fc |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Eudyptes chrysolophus Macaroni penguin Marion Island Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Eudyptes chrysolophus Macaroni penguin Marion Island Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Ecological Indicators, Vol 147, Iss , Pp 109943- (2023) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23000857 https://doaj.org/toc/1470-160X 1470-160X doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109943 https://doaj.org/article/a92011c7eaf841f28e6f5b0ac87214fc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.109943 |
container_title |
Ecological Indicators |
container_volume |
147 |
container_start_page |
109943 |
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1766404433280761856 |