Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps
This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a8f90f3868974c7294645edc4772db85 2023-05-15T18:32:26+02:00 Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps D. Verfaillie M. Lafaysse M. Déqué N. Eckert Y. Lejeune S. Morin 2018-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 https://doaj.org/article/a8f90f3868974c7294645edc4772db85 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1249/2018/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/a8f90f3868974c7294645edc4772db85 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 1249-1271 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 2022-12-31T14:28:36Z This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5–EURO-CORDEX GCM–RCM pairs spanning historical (1950–2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006–2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 °C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986–2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 °C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 12 4 1249 1271 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 D. Verfaillie M. Lafaysse M. Déqué N. Eckert Y. Lejeune S. Morin Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5–EURO-CORDEX GCM–RCM pairs spanning historical (1950–2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006–2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20 % typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 °C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32 % reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986–2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 °C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
D. Verfaillie M. Lafaysse M. Déqué N. Eckert Y. Lejeune S. Morin |
author_facet |
D. Verfaillie M. Lafaysse M. Déqué N. Eckert Y. Lejeune S. Morin |
author_sort |
D. Verfaillie |
title |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_short |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_full |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_fullStr |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_sort |
multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500 m altitude in the chartreuse mountain range, northern french alps |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 https://doaj.org/article/a8f90f3868974c7294645edc4772db85 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 1249-1271 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/1249/2018/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/a8f90f3868974c7294645edc4772db85 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1249 |
op_container_end_page |
1271 |
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1766216548574298112 |