Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence.
BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy m...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a8f024d0f626487898547deb5f29e06f 2023-05-15T15:15:31+02:00 Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. Líliam César de Castro Medeiros César Augusto Rodrigues Castilho Cynthia Braga Wayner Vieira de Souza Leda Regis Antonio Miguel Vieira Monteiro 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942 https://doaj.org/article/a8f024d0f626487898547deb5f29e06f EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3019115?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942 https://doaj.org/article/a8f024d0f626487898547deb5f29e06f PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 1, p e942 (2011) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942 2022-12-30T21:23:48Z BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1(st)) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2(nd)) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue monitoring and control system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 5 1 e942 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Líliam César de Castro Medeiros César Augusto Rodrigues Castilho Cynthia Braga Wayner Vieira de Souza Leda Regis Antonio Miguel Vieira Monteiro Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease of great complexity, due to interactions between humans, mosquitoes and various virus serotypes as well as efficient vector survival strategies. Thus, understanding the factors influencing the persistence of the disease has been a challenge for scientists and policy makers. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of various factors related to humans and vectors in the maintenance of viral transmission during extended periods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stochastic cellular automata model to simulate the spread of dengue fever in a dense community. Each cell can correspond to a built area, and human and mosquito populations are individually monitored during the simulations. Human mobility and renewal, as well as vector infestation, are taken into consideration. To investigate the factors influencing the maintenance of viral circulation, two sets of simulations were performed: (1(st)) varying human renewal rates and human population sizes and (2(nd)) varying the house index (fraction of infested buildings) and vector per human ratio. We found that viral transmission is inhibited with the combination of small human populations with low renewal rates. It is also shown that maintenance of viral circulation for extended periods is possible at low values of house index. Based on the results of the model and on a study conducted in the city of Recife, Brazil, which associates vector infestation with Aedes aegytpi egg counts, we question the current methodology used in calculating the house index, based on larval survey. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributed to a better understanding of the dynamics of dengue subsistence. Using basic concepts of metapopulations, we concluded that low infestation rates in a few neighborhoods ensure the persistence of dengue in large cities and suggested that better strategies should be implemented to obtain measures of house index values, in order to improve the dengue monitoring and control system. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Líliam César de Castro Medeiros César Augusto Rodrigues Castilho Cynthia Braga Wayner Vieira de Souza Leda Regis Antonio Miguel Vieira Monteiro |
author_facet |
Líliam César de Castro Medeiros César Augusto Rodrigues Castilho Cynthia Braga Wayner Vieira de Souza Leda Regis Antonio Miguel Vieira Monteiro |
author_sort |
Líliam César de Castro Medeiros |
title |
Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
title_short |
Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
title_full |
Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
title_sort |
modeling the dynamic transmission of dengue fever: investigating disease persistence. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942 https://doaj.org/article/a8f024d0f626487898547deb5f29e06f |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 5, Iss 1, p e942 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3019115?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942 https://doaj.org/article/a8f024d0f626487898547deb5f29e06f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0000942 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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5 |
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1 |
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e942 |
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