The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard
The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ic...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a8d7fe5a59d949439b048c1a245a5cac 2023-05-15T14:48:25+02:00 The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard J. J. Day J. L. Bamber P. J. Valdes J. Kohler 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-35-2012 https://doaj.org/article/a8d7fe5a59d949439b048c1a245a5cac EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/35/2012/tc-6-35-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-35-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/a8d7fe5a59d949439b048c1a245a5cac The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 35-50 (2012) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2012 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-35-2012 2022-12-31T05:24:26Z The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Svalbard The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Arctic Ocean Svalbard The Cryosphere 6 1 35 50 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. J. Day J. L. Bamber P. J. Valdes J. Kohler The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. J. Day J. L. Bamber P. J. Valdes J. Kohler |
author_facet |
J. J. Day J. L. Bamber P. J. Valdes J. Kohler |
author_sort |
J. J. Day |
title |
The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard |
title_short |
The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard |
title_full |
The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard |
title_fullStr |
The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard |
title_sort |
impact of a seasonally ice free arctic ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of svalbard |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-35-2012 https://doaj.org/article/a8d7fe5a59d949439b048c1a245a5cac |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Svalbard The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Svalbard The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 35-50 (2012) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/35/2012/tc-6-35-2012.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-6-35-2012 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/a8d7fe5a59d949439b048c1a245a5cac |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-35-2012 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
35 |
op_container_end_page |
50 |
_version_ |
1766319487844352000 |