Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus.
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and soci...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a8d159012ff14a54be1d86d6b1412cb7 2023-05-15T15:11:49+02:00 Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. Yanyu Xiao John C Beier Robert Stephen Cantrell Chris Cosner Donald L DeAngelis Shigui Ruan 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388 https://doaj.org/article/a8d159012ff14a54be1d86d6b1412cb7 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4287488?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388 https://doaj.org/article/a8d159012ff14a54be1d86d6b1412cb7 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 1, p e3388 (2015) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388 2022-12-31T14:27:54Z Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held). Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9 1 e3388 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Yanyu Xiao John C Beier Robert Stephen Cantrell Chris Cosner Donald L DeAngelis Shigui Ruan Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito-borne viral zoonosis in Africa and the Middle East that causes human deaths and significant economic losses due to huge incidences of death and abortion among infected livestock. Outbreaks of RVF are sporadic and associated with both seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Here we propose an almost periodic three-patch model to investigate the transmission dynamics of RVF virus (RVFV) among ruminants with spatial movements. Our findings indicate that, in Northeastern Africa, human activities, including those associated with the Eid al Adha feast, along with a combination of climatic factors such as rainfall level and hydrological variations, contribute to the transmission and dispersal of the disease pathogen. Moreover, sporadic outbreaks may occur when the two events occur together: 1) abundant livestock are recruited into areas at risk from RVF due to the demand for the religious festival and 2) abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge. These two factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks. Our numerical results present the transmission dynamics of the disease pathogen over both short and long periods of time, particularly during the festival time. Further, we investigate the impact on patterns of disease outbreaks in each patch brought by festival- and seasonal-driven factors, such as the number of livestock imported daily, the animal transportation speed from patch to patch, and the death rate induced by ceremonial sacrifices. In addition, our simulations show that when the time for festival preparation starts earlier than usual, the risk of massive disease outbreaks rises, particularly in patch 3 (the place where the religious ceremony will be held). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yanyu Xiao John C Beier Robert Stephen Cantrell Chris Cosner Donald L DeAngelis Shigui Ruan |
author_facet |
Yanyu Xiao John C Beier Robert Stephen Cantrell Chris Cosner Donald L DeAngelis Shigui Ruan |
author_sort |
Yanyu Xiao |
title |
Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. |
title_short |
Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. |
title_full |
Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. |
title_fullStr |
Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley Fever virus. |
title_sort |
modelling the effects of seasonality and socioeconomic impact on the transmission of rift valley fever virus. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388 https://doaj.org/article/a8d159012ff14a54be1d86d6b1412cb7 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 1, p e3388 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4287488?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388 https://doaj.org/article/a8d159012ff14a54be1d86d6b1412cb7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003388 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e3388 |
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