Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications
Global ocean models that admit mesoscale turbulence spontaneously generate interannual-to-multidecadal chaotic intrinsic variability in the absence of atmospheric forcing variability at these timescales. This phenomenon is substantially weaker in non-turbulent ocean models but provides a marked stoc...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a88a04d0153b4f1aade8b0fa70b828d5 2023-05-15T18:18:31+02:00 Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications Thierry Penduff Guillaume Sérazin Stéphanie Leroux Sally Close Jean-Marc Molines Bernard Barnier Laurent Bessières Laurent Terray Guillaume Maze 2018-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 https://doaj.org/article/a88a04d0153b4f1aade8b0fa70b828d5 EN eng The Oceanography Society https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 https://doaj.org/toc/1042-8275 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 1042-8275 https://doaj.org/article/a88a04d0153b4f1aade8b0fa70b828d5 Oceanography, Vol 31, Iss 2, Pp 63-71 (2018) ocean models mesoscale turbulence ocean heat Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 2022-12-31T03:52:09Z Global ocean models that admit mesoscale turbulence spontaneously generate interannual-to-multidecadal chaotic intrinsic variability in the absence of atmospheric forcing variability at these timescales. This phenomenon is substantially weaker in non-turbulent ocean models but provides a marked stochastic flavor to the low-frequency variability in eddying ocean models, which are being coupled to the atmosphere for next-generation climate projections. In order to disentangle the atmospherically forced and intrinsic ocean variabilities, the OCCIPUT (Oceanic Chaos – Impacts, Structures, Predictability) project performed a long (1960–2015), large ensemble (50 members) of global ocean/sea ice 1/4° simulations driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis, but with perturbed initial conditions. Subsequent ensemble statistics show that the ocean variability can be seen as a broadband "noise," with characteristic scales reaching multiple decades and basin sizes, locally modulated by the atmospheric variability. In several mid-latitude regions, chaotic processes have more impact than atmospheric variability on both the low-frequency variability and the long-term trends of regional ocean heat content. Consequently, certain climate-relevant oceanic signals cannot be unambiguously attributed to atmospheric variability, raising new issues for the detection, attribution, and interpretation of oceanic heat variability and trends in the presence of mesoscale turbulence. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Oceanography 31 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ocean models mesoscale turbulence ocean heat Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
ocean models mesoscale turbulence ocean heat Oceanography GC1-1581 Thierry Penduff Guillaume Sérazin Stéphanie Leroux Sally Close Jean-Marc Molines Bernard Barnier Laurent Bessières Laurent Terray Guillaume Maze Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications |
topic_facet |
ocean models mesoscale turbulence ocean heat Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Global ocean models that admit mesoscale turbulence spontaneously generate interannual-to-multidecadal chaotic intrinsic variability in the absence of atmospheric forcing variability at these timescales. This phenomenon is substantially weaker in non-turbulent ocean models but provides a marked stochastic flavor to the low-frequency variability in eddying ocean models, which are being coupled to the atmosphere for next-generation climate projections. In order to disentangle the atmospherically forced and intrinsic ocean variabilities, the OCCIPUT (Oceanic Chaos – Impacts, Structures, Predictability) project performed a long (1960–2015), large ensemble (50 members) of global ocean/sea ice 1/4° simulations driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis, but with perturbed initial conditions. Subsequent ensemble statistics show that the ocean variability can be seen as a broadband "noise," with characteristic scales reaching multiple decades and basin sizes, locally modulated by the atmospheric variability. In several mid-latitude regions, chaotic processes have more impact than atmospheric variability on both the low-frequency variability and the long-term trends of regional ocean heat content. Consequently, certain climate-relevant oceanic signals cannot be unambiguously attributed to atmospheric variability, raising new issues for the detection, attribution, and interpretation of oceanic heat variability and trends in the presence of mesoscale turbulence. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Thierry Penduff Guillaume Sérazin Stéphanie Leroux Sally Close Jean-Marc Molines Bernard Barnier Laurent Bessières Laurent Terray Guillaume Maze |
author_facet |
Thierry Penduff Guillaume Sérazin Stéphanie Leroux Sally Close Jean-Marc Molines Bernard Barnier Laurent Bessières Laurent Terray Guillaume Maze |
author_sort |
Thierry Penduff |
title |
Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications |
title_short |
Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications |
title_full |
Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications |
title_fullStr |
Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications |
title_full_unstemmed |
Chaotic Variability of Ocean Heat Content: Climate-Relevant Features and Observational Implications |
title_sort |
chaotic variability of ocean heat content: climate-relevant features and observational implications |
publisher |
The Oceanography Society |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 https://doaj.org/article/a88a04d0153b4f1aade8b0fa70b828d5 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Oceanography, Vol 31, Iss 2, Pp 63-71 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 https://doaj.org/toc/1042-8275 doi:10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 1042-8275 https://doaj.org/article/a88a04d0153b4f1aade8b0fa70b828d5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2018.210 |
container_title |
Oceanography |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1766195108893425664 |