A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea.
Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shif...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a7dfe5cf4a5b40f0997b3044f15114d5 2023-05-15T15:47:57+02:00 A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. Danny J Papworth Simone Marini Alessandra Conversi 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158230 https://doaj.org/article/a7dfe5cf4a5b40f0997b3044f15114d5 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4930201?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158230 https://doaj.org/article/a7dfe5cf4a5b40f0997b3044f15114d5 PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0158230 (2016) Medicine R Science Q article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158230 2022-12-30T23:18:54Z Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology. Article in Journal/Newspaper Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic Subarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles PLOS ONE 11 7 e0158230 |
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Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Danny J Papworth Simone Marini Alessandra Conversi A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. |
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Medicine R Science Q |
description |
Marine populations are controlled by a series of drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey interactions). There is heated debate over drivers, especially when trying to understand the causes of major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this work, we have researched and developed a novel methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for distinguishing which drivers can influence species abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters used or on the underlying mathematical relationships among them. We have validated this methodology applying it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86 biological, hydrographical and climatic time series, ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation, to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011, during which period there was an ecological regime shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights the importance of considering both physical and trophic drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting that when there is availability of both data types, local drivers are more important. The results produced by the GP based procedure are consistent with the literature published to date, and validate the use of GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that this methodology holds promises for the highly non-linear field of ecology. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Danny J Papworth Simone Marini Alessandra Conversi |
author_facet |
Danny J Papworth Simone Marini Alessandra Conversi |
author_sort |
Danny J Papworth |
title |
A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. |
title_short |
A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. |
title_full |
A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. |
title_fullStr |
A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea. |
title_sort |
novel, unbiased analysis approach for investigating population dynamics: a case study on calanus finmarchicus and its decline in the north sea. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158230 https://doaj.org/article/a7dfe5cf4a5b40f0997b3044f15114d5 |
genre |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic Subarctic |
genre_facet |
Calanus finmarchicus North Atlantic Subarctic |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 7, p e0158230 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4930201?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158230 https://doaj.org/article/a7dfe5cf4a5b40f0997b3044f15114d5 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158230 |
container_title |
PLOS ONE |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
e0158230 |
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