Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe
Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial–interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. I...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a7b1c6f3f19d4791b0164fbafc376ca1 2023-05-15T16:40:42+02:00 Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe N. Korhonen A. Venäläinen H. Seppä H. Järvinen 2014-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014 https://doaj.org/article/a7b1c6f3f19d4791b0164fbafc376ca1 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.clim-past.net/10/1489/2014/cp-10-1489-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 1814-9324 1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014 https://doaj.org/article/a7b1c6f3f19d4791b0164fbafc376ca1 Climate of the Past, Vol 10, Iss 4, Pp 1489-1500 (2014) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014 2022-12-31T12:15:57Z Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial–interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. In this study we introduce a way to use generalized additive models (GAMs) for downscaling the large-scale output of an EMIC in very different climatological conditions ranging from glacial periods to current relatively warm climates. GAMs are regression models in which a combination of explanatory variables is related to the response through a sum of spline functions. We calibrated the GAMs using observations of the recent past climate and the results of short time-slice simulations of glacial climate performed by the relatively high-resolution general circulation model CCSM (Community Climate System Model) and the regional climate model RCA3 (Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model). As explanatory variables we used the output of a simulation by the CLIMBER-2 (CLIMate and BiosphERe model 2) EMIC of the last glacial cycle, coupled with the SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) ice sheet model, i.e. the large-scale temperature and precipitation data of CLIMBER-2, and the elevation, distance to ice sheet, slope direction and slope angle from SICOPOLIS. The fitted GAMs were able to explain more than 96% of the temperature response with a correlation of >0.98 and more than 59% of the precipitation response with a correlation of >0.72. The first comparison with two pollen-based reconstructions of temperature for Northern Europe showed that CLIMBER-2 data downscaled by GAMs corresponded better with the reconstructions than did the bilinearly interpolated CLIMBER-2 surface temperature. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate of the Past 10 4 1489 1500 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 N. Korhonen A. Venäläinen H. Seppä H. Järvinen Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) have proven to be able to simulate the large-scale features of glacial–interglacial climate evolution. For many climatic applications the spatial resolution of the EMICs' output is, however, too coarse, and downscaling methods are needed. In this study we introduce a way to use generalized additive models (GAMs) for downscaling the large-scale output of an EMIC in very different climatological conditions ranging from glacial periods to current relatively warm climates. GAMs are regression models in which a combination of explanatory variables is related to the response through a sum of spline functions. We calibrated the GAMs using observations of the recent past climate and the results of short time-slice simulations of glacial climate performed by the relatively high-resolution general circulation model CCSM (Community Climate System Model) and the regional climate model RCA3 (Rossby Centre regional Atmospheric climate model). As explanatory variables we used the output of a simulation by the CLIMBER-2 (CLIMate and BiosphERe model 2) EMIC of the last glacial cycle, coupled with the SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets) ice sheet model, i.e. the large-scale temperature and precipitation data of CLIMBER-2, and the elevation, distance to ice sheet, slope direction and slope angle from SICOPOLIS. The fitted GAMs were able to explain more than 96% of the temperature response with a correlation of >0.98 and more than 59% of the precipitation response with a correlation of >0.72. The first comparison with two pollen-based reconstructions of temperature for Northern Europe showed that CLIMBER-2 data downscaled by GAMs corresponded better with the reconstructions than did the bilinearly interpolated CLIMBER-2 surface temperature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
N. Korhonen A. Venäläinen H. Seppä H. Järvinen |
author_facet |
N. Korhonen A. Venäläinen H. Seppä H. Järvinen |
author_sort |
N. Korhonen |
title |
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe |
title_short |
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe |
title_full |
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe |
title_fullStr |
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over Northern Europe |
title_sort |
statistical downscaling of a climate simulation of the last glacial cycle: temperature and precipitation over northern europe |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014 https://doaj.org/article/a7b1c6f3f19d4791b0164fbafc376ca1 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 10, Iss 4, Pp 1489-1500 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://www.clim-past.net/10/1489/2014/cp-10-1489-2014.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 1814-9324 1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014 https://doaj.org/article/a7b1c6f3f19d4791b0164fbafc376ca1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1489-2014 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1489 |
op_container_end_page |
1500 |
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1766031110911819776 |