Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance
Abstract The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource management. Here, we demonstrate that the abundance of phytoplankton, the...
Published in: | Communications Earth & Environment |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 https://doaj.org/article/a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 2023-06-11T04:09:29+02:00 Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance Filippa Fransner Are Olsen Marius Årthun François Counillon Jerry Tjiputra Annette Samuelsen Noel Keenlyside 2023-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 https://doaj.org/article/a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2662-4435 doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 2662-4435 https://doaj.org/article/a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2023) Geology QE1-996.5 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 2023-05-07T00:35:50Z Abstract The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource management. Here, we demonstrate that the abundance of phytoplankton, the base of the marine food web, can be predicted up to five years in advance in the Barents Sea with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. We identify two different mechanisms giving rise to this predictability; 1) in the southern ice-free Atlantic Domain, skillful prediction is a result of the advection of waters with anomalous nitrate concentrations from the Subpolar North Atlantic; 2) in the northern Polar Domain, phytoplankton predictability is a result of the skillful prediction of the summer ice concentration, which influences the light availability. The skillful prediction of the phytoplankton abundance is an important step forward in the development of numerical ecosystem predictions of the Barents Sea. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic Phytoplankton Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Barents Sea Communications Earth & Environment 4 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Geology QE1-996.5 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
spellingShingle |
Geology QE1-996.5 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Filippa Fransner Are Olsen Marius Årthun François Counillon Jerry Tjiputra Annette Samuelsen Noel Keenlyside Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
topic_facet |
Geology QE1-996.5 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
Abstract The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource management. Here, we demonstrate that the abundance of phytoplankton, the base of the marine food web, can be predicted up to five years in advance in the Barents Sea with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. We identify two different mechanisms giving rise to this predictability; 1) in the southern ice-free Atlantic Domain, skillful prediction is a result of the advection of waters with anomalous nitrate concentrations from the Subpolar North Atlantic; 2) in the northern Polar Domain, phytoplankton predictability is a result of the skillful prediction of the summer ice concentration, which influences the light availability. The skillful prediction of the phytoplankton abundance is an important step forward in the development of numerical ecosystem predictions of the Barents Sea. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Filippa Fransner Are Olsen Marius Årthun François Counillon Jerry Tjiputra Annette Samuelsen Noel Keenlyside |
author_facet |
Filippa Fransner Are Olsen Marius Årthun François Counillon Jerry Tjiputra Annette Samuelsen Noel Keenlyside |
author_sort |
Filippa Fransner |
title |
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
title_short |
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
title_full |
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
title_fullStr |
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
title_full_unstemmed |
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
title_sort |
phytoplankton abundance in the barents sea is predictable up to five years in advance |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 https://doaj.org/article/a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic Phytoplankton |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea North Atlantic Phytoplankton |
op_source |
Communications Earth & Environment, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2662-4435 doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 2662-4435 https://doaj.org/article/a756729157334ffd9cf9c08cd4f149f9 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9 |
container_title |
Communications Earth & Environment |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1768383383373611008 |