Skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice cover

The interannual variability in the Baltic Sea ice cover is strongly influenced by large scale atmospheric circulation. Recent progress in forecasting of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides the possibility of skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice conditions. In this paper we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Alexey Yu Karpechko, K Andrew Peterson, Adam A Scaife, Jouni Vainio, Hilppa Gregow
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2015
Subjects:
seasonal forecasting
North Atlantic Oscillation
Baltic Sea ice
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Science
Q
Physics
QC1-999
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044007
https://doaj.org/article/a65e60d7474c4464821a935d1e384a8a
Description
Summary:The interannual variability in the Baltic Sea ice cover is strongly influenced by large scale atmospheric circulation. Recent progress in forecasting of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) provides the possibility of skilful seasonal predictions of Baltic Sea ice conditions. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art forecast system to assess the predictability of the Baltic Sea annual maximum ice extent (MIE). We find a useful level of skill in retrospective forecasts initialized as early as the beginning of November. The forecast system can explain as much as 30% of the observed variability in MIE over the period 1993–2012. This skill is derived from the predictability of the NAO by using statistical relationships between the NAO and MIE in observations, while explicit simulations of sea ice have a less predictive skill. This result supports the idea that the NAO represents the main source of seasonal predictability for Northern Europe.

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