A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century
Abstract Although the trend of sea-ice extent under global warming has been studied extensively in recent years, most climate models have failed to capture the recent rapid change in the Arctic environment, which has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of sea ice and s...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 https://doaj.org/article/a51f0006c3f644de8f2fd66d59dd4fbf |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a51f0006c3f644de8f2fd66d59dd4fbf 2023-08-27T04:07:00+02:00 A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century Zili Shen Wen Zhou Jinxiao Li Johnny C. L. Chan 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 https://doaj.org/article/a51f0006c3f644de8f2fd66d59dd4fbf EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/a51f0006c3f644de8f2fd66d59dd4fbf npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 2023-08-06T00:49:20Z Abstract Although the trend of sea-ice extent under global warming has been studied extensively in recent years, most climate models have failed to capture the recent rapid change in the Arctic environment, which has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of sea ice and suggested a potential shift in Arctic climate dynamics. Here, based on the results of a time-variant emergent constraint method with a weighting scheme, we show that an ice-free Arctic might occur earlier (by at least 5 ~ 10 years) than previously estimated. In other words, Arctic ice will likely disappear before the 2050 s. The observationally constrained date for an ice-free Arctic in September under fossil-fuel-based development (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5–8.5) scenarios yields a central estimate of 2050–2054 with a 66% confidence range (equivalent to the IPCC’s ‘likely’ range) of 2037–2066, while an ice-free Arctic will likely occur for another 20 years and 11 years under ambitious mitigation scenarios (i.e., SSP2-4.5) and SSP3-7.0. An ice-free Arctic is unlikely to occur under the sustainable development scenario (i.e., SSP1-2.6). Looking forward, this time-variant emergent constraint may also help detect tipping points in the climate system. Our findings provide useful information to help policy makers cope with climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Zili Shen Wen Zhou Jinxiao Li Johnny C. L. Chan A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract Although the trend of sea-ice extent under global warming has been studied extensively in recent years, most climate models have failed to capture the recent rapid change in the Arctic environment, which has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of sea ice and suggested a potential shift in Arctic climate dynamics. Here, based on the results of a time-variant emergent constraint method with a weighting scheme, we show that an ice-free Arctic might occur earlier (by at least 5 ~ 10 years) than previously estimated. In other words, Arctic ice will likely disappear before the 2050 s. The observationally constrained date for an ice-free Arctic in September under fossil-fuel-based development (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5–8.5) scenarios yields a central estimate of 2050–2054 with a 66% confidence range (equivalent to the IPCC’s ‘likely’ range) of 2037–2066, while an ice-free Arctic will likely occur for another 20 years and 11 years under ambitious mitigation scenarios (i.e., SSP2-4.5) and SSP3-7.0. An ice-free Arctic is unlikely to occur under the sustainable development scenario (i.e., SSP1-2.6). Looking forward, this time-variant emergent constraint may also help detect tipping points in the climate system. Our findings provide useful information to help policy makers cope with climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zili Shen Wen Zhou Jinxiao Li Johnny C. L. Chan |
author_facet |
Zili Shen Wen Zhou Jinxiao Li Johnny C. L. Chan |
author_sort |
Zili Shen |
title |
A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
title_short |
A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
title_full |
A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
title_fullStr |
A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
A frequent ice-free Arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
title_sort |
frequent ice-free arctic is likely to occur before the mid-21st century |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 https://doaj.org/article/a51f0006c3f644de8f2fd66d59dd4fbf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Global warming Sea ice |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 6, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/a51f0006c3f644de8f2fd66d59dd4fbf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00431-1 |
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npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1775347708212543488 |