North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas
Tropical cyclones devastate coastlines around the world. The United States and surrounding areas experienced catastrophic extreme events in recent hurricane seasons. Understanding extreme hurricanes and how they change in a warming ocean environment is of the utmost importance. This study makes use...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a38a5337b03e4972bbf6decd4e3469bf 2023-05-15T17:30:24+02:00 North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas Jill C. Trepanier 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030293 https://doaj.org/article/a38a5337b03e4972bbf6decd4e3469bf EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/3/293 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos11030293 https://doaj.org/article/a38a5337b03e4972bbf6decd4e3469bf Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 3, p 293 (2020) tropical cyclones climate change risk spatial statistics Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030293 2022-12-31T12:24:03Z Tropical cyclones devastate coastlines around the world. The United States and surrounding areas experienced catastrophic extreme events in recent hurricane seasons. Understanding extreme hurricanes and how they change in a warming ocean environment is of the utmost importance. This study makes use of the historical, positive relationship between average summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and maximum hurricane wind speeds across the North Atlantic Basin from 1854–2018. Geographically weighted regression shows how the relationship between hurricane winds and SSTs varies across space. Each localized slope is used to increase historical wind speeds to represent winds in a three-degree Celsius warmer-than-average sea surface. The winds are then used to estimate the maximum intensity of the thirty-year hurricane (one with a 3.3% annual probability of occurrence) across the hexagonal grid using extreme value statistics. Viewing the results spatially allows for geographic patterns to emerge in the overall risk of major hurricane occurrence in warm SST environments. This study showcases the difference in the historical extreme compared to the potential future extreme in the hopes to better inform those charged with making important, life-saving decisions along the U.S. and neighboring coasts. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 11 3 293 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tropical cyclones climate change risk spatial statistics Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
tropical cyclones climate change risk spatial statistics Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Jill C. Trepanier North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclones climate change risk spatial statistics Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Tropical cyclones devastate coastlines around the world. The United States and surrounding areas experienced catastrophic extreme events in recent hurricane seasons. Understanding extreme hurricanes and how they change in a warming ocean environment is of the utmost importance. This study makes use of the historical, positive relationship between average summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and maximum hurricane wind speeds across the North Atlantic Basin from 1854–2018. Geographically weighted regression shows how the relationship between hurricane winds and SSTs varies across space. Each localized slope is used to increase historical wind speeds to represent winds in a three-degree Celsius warmer-than-average sea surface. The winds are then used to estimate the maximum intensity of the thirty-year hurricane (one with a 3.3% annual probability of occurrence) across the hexagonal grid using extreme value statistics. Viewing the results spatially allows for geographic patterns to emerge in the overall risk of major hurricane occurrence in warm SST environments. This study showcases the difference in the historical extreme compared to the potential future extreme in the hopes to better inform those charged with making important, life-saving decisions along the U.S. and neighboring coasts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jill C. Trepanier |
author_facet |
Jill C. Trepanier |
author_sort |
Jill C. Trepanier |
title |
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas |
title_short |
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas |
title_full |
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas |
title_fullStr |
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas |
title_full_unstemmed |
North Atlantic Hurricane Winds in Warmer than Normal Seas |
title_sort |
north atlantic hurricane winds in warmer than normal seas |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030293 https://doaj.org/article/a38a5337b03e4972bbf6decd4e3469bf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 11, Iss 3, p 293 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/11/3/293 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos11030293 https://doaj.org/article/a38a5337b03e4972bbf6decd4e3469bf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11030293 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
293 |
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1766126775925997568 |