Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020
This paper discusses the growing dynamics of the increasing of the amount and especially the Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPA) and the Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA). This dynamics is а reflection of the sustainable environmental imperative in the national interests of the Antarct...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a2e7ae03dfbb486cb33d2f2380bea79f 2023-05-15T13:40:08+02:00 Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 О. V. Kuzko А. Р. Fedchuk V. V. Savchenko 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.14.2015.199 https://doaj.org/article/a2e7ae03dfbb486cb33d2f2380bea79f EN UK eng ukr State Institution National Antarctic Scientific Center http://uaj.uac.gov.ua/index.php/uaj/article/view/199 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-7485 https://doaj.org/toc/2415-3087 1727-7485 2415-3087 doi:10.33275/1727-7485.14.2015.199 https://doaj.org/article/a2e7ae03dfbb486cb33d2f2380bea79f Український антарктичний журнал, Iss 14, Pp 256-260 (2016) antarctic specially protected areas antarctic specially managed areas richardson's model mathematical forecast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.14.2015.199 2022-12-31T13:24:09Z This paper discusses the growing dynamics of the increasing of the amount and especially the Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPA) and the Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA). This dynamics is а reflection of the sustainable environmental imperative in the national interests of the Antarctic Treaty Parties. This dynamics is analyzed using the Richardson's model, which was used bу Thomas L. Saaty for the analysis of the arms race dynamics in the twentieth century. Using this model made it possible to estimate the expected of the ASPA and ASMA amount and areas in the near future. So in 2020 it is expected to increase the total areas of ASPA and АSМА up to 103,700 km2 (which is comparable to the Iceland area). The question of the accuracy increasing of the used model and the accuracy of the quantitative characteristics is discussed. The obtained quantitative characteristics will provide the policy makers and national Antarctic program managers bу the additional arguments for decision-making оn the further management of the human activities and nature conservation in the Antarctic. Among the general public obtained characteristics will contribute to the better understanding of the development trends of the international legal regime of the Antarctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Iceland Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Ukrainian Antarctic Journal 14 256 260 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English Ukrainian |
topic |
antarctic specially protected areas antarctic specially managed areas richardson's model mathematical forecast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
spellingShingle |
antarctic specially protected areas antarctic specially managed areas richardson's model mathematical forecast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 О. V. Kuzko А. Р. Fedchuk V. V. Savchenko Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
topic_facet |
antarctic specially protected areas antarctic specially managed areas richardson's model mathematical forecast Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Geophysics. Cosmic physics QC801-809 |
description |
This paper discusses the growing dynamics of the increasing of the amount and especially the Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPA) and the Antarctic Specially Managed Areas (ASMA). This dynamics is а reflection of the sustainable environmental imperative in the national interests of the Antarctic Treaty Parties. This dynamics is analyzed using the Richardson's model, which was used bу Thomas L. Saaty for the analysis of the arms race dynamics in the twentieth century. Using this model made it possible to estimate the expected of the ASPA and ASMA amount and areas in the near future. So in 2020 it is expected to increase the total areas of ASPA and АSМА up to 103,700 km2 (which is comparable to the Iceland area). The question of the accuracy increasing of the used model and the accuracy of the quantitative characteristics is discussed. The obtained quantitative characteristics will provide the policy makers and national Antarctic program managers bу the additional arguments for decision-making оn the further management of the human activities and nature conservation in the Antarctic. Among the general public obtained characteristics will contribute to the better understanding of the development trends of the international legal regime of the Antarctic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
О. V. Kuzko А. Р. Fedchuk V. V. Savchenko |
author_facet |
О. V. Kuzko А. Р. Fedchuk V. V. Savchenko |
author_sort |
О. V. Kuzko |
title |
Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
title_short |
Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
title_full |
Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
title_fullStr |
Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Development of Antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
title_sort |
development of antarctic protected areas: mathematical forecast for 2020 |
publisher |
State Institution National Antarctic Scientific Center |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.14.2015.199 https://doaj.org/article/a2e7ae03dfbb486cb33d2f2380bea79f |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Iceland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Iceland |
op_source |
Український антарктичний журнал, Iss 14, Pp 256-260 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://uaj.uac.gov.ua/index.php/uaj/article/view/199 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-7485 https://doaj.org/toc/2415-3087 1727-7485 2415-3087 doi:10.33275/1727-7485.14.2015.199 https://doaj.org/article/a2e7ae03dfbb486cb33d2f2380bea79f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.14.2015.199 |
container_title |
Ukrainian Antarctic Journal |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
256 |
op_container_end_page |
260 |
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1766128638687707136 |