Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria.
Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rab...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/article/a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 2023-05-15T15:16:46+02:00 Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. Philip P Mshelbwala Ricardo J Soares Magalhães J Scott Weese Nasir O Ahmed Charles E Rupprecht Nicholas J Clark 2023-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/article/a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/article/a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e0011147 (2023) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 2023-03-12T01:30:19Z Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rabies hinders advocacy and resource allocation for effective prevention and control. We obtained 20 years of dog bite surveillance data across 19 major hospitals in Abuja, incorporating modifiable and environmental covariates. To overcome the challenge of missing information, we used a Bayesian approach with expert-solicited prior information to jointly model missing covariate data and the additive effects of the covariates on the predicted probability of human death after rabies virus exposure. Only 1155 cases of dog bites were recorded throughout the study period, out of which 4.2% (N = 49) died of rabies. The odds for risk of human death were predicted to decrease among individuals who were bitten by owned dogs compared to those bitten by free-roaming dogs. Similarly, there was a predicted decrease in the probability of human death among victims bitten by vaccinated dogs compared to those bitten by unvaccinated dogs. The odds for the risk of human death after bitten individuals received rabies prophylaxis were predicted to decrease compared to no prophylaxis. We demonstrate the practical application of a regularised Bayesian approach to model sparse dog bite surveillance data to uncover risk factors for human rabies, with broader applications in other endemic rabies settings with similar profiles. The low reporting observed in this study underscores the need for community engagement and investment in surveillance to increase data availability. Better data on bite cases will help to estimate the burden of rabies in Nigeria and would be important to plan effective prevention and control of this disease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17 2 e0011147 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Philip P Mshelbwala Ricardo J Soares Magalhães J Scott Weese Nasir O Ahmed Charles E Rupprecht Nicholas J Clark Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Canine-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands of people annually in lesser-developed communities of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, primarily through bites from infected dogs. Multiple rabies outbreaks have been associated with human deaths in Nigeria. However, the lack of quality data on human rabies hinders advocacy and resource allocation for effective prevention and control. We obtained 20 years of dog bite surveillance data across 19 major hospitals in Abuja, incorporating modifiable and environmental covariates. To overcome the challenge of missing information, we used a Bayesian approach with expert-solicited prior information to jointly model missing covariate data and the additive effects of the covariates on the predicted probability of human death after rabies virus exposure. Only 1155 cases of dog bites were recorded throughout the study period, out of which 4.2% (N = 49) died of rabies. The odds for risk of human death were predicted to decrease among individuals who were bitten by owned dogs compared to those bitten by free-roaming dogs. Similarly, there was a predicted decrease in the probability of human death among victims bitten by vaccinated dogs compared to those bitten by unvaccinated dogs. The odds for the risk of human death after bitten individuals received rabies prophylaxis were predicted to decrease compared to no prophylaxis. We demonstrate the practical application of a regularised Bayesian approach to model sparse dog bite surveillance data to uncover risk factors for human rabies, with broader applications in other endemic rabies settings with similar profiles. The low reporting observed in this study underscores the need for community engagement and investment in surveillance to increase data availability. Better data on bite cases will help to estimate the burden of rabies in Nigeria and would be important to plan effective prevention and control of this disease. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Philip P Mshelbwala Ricardo J Soares Magalhães J Scott Weese Nasir O Ahmed Charles E Rupprecht Nicholas J Clark |
author_facet |
Philip P Mshelbwala Ricardo J Soares Magalhães J Scott Weese Nasir O Ahmed Charles E Rupprecht Nicholas J Clark |
author_sort |
Philip P Mshelbwala |
title |
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. |
title_short |
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. |
title_full |
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. |
title_fullStr |
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in Abuja, Nigeria. |
title_sort |
modelling modifiable factors associated with the probability of human rabies deaths among self-reported victims of dog bites in abuja, nigeria. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/article/a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 17, Iss 2, p e0011147 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 https://doaj.org/article/a1d8a716501e4e67ab5e3f5c8e8b0167 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011147 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
e0011147 |
_version_ |
1766347064322555904 |