The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results
We examine population trends in light of male harvest data considering the long-time series of population data on northern fur seals at Tyuleniy Island. To answer the question has the way males were harvested influenced the population trajectory, we analyzed the visual harem size and birth rate dyna...
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2022
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a1c074f3cfd447a7b203f0919684d8c7 2023-05-15T18:49:38+02:00 The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results Oksana Zhdanova Alexey Kuzin Efim Frisman 2022-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/math10173067 https://doaj.org/article/a1c074f3cfd447a7b203f0919684d8c7 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/17/3067 https://doaj.org/toc/2227-7390 doi:10.3390/math10173067 2227-7390 https://doaj.org/article/a1c074f3cfd447a7b203f0919684d8c7 Mathematics, Vol 10, Iss 3067, p 3067 (2022) Callorhinus ursinus matrix population model harvest conservation growth rate Mathematics QA1-939 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/math10173067 2022-12-30T19:59:50Z We examine population trends in light of male harvest data considering the long-time series of population data on northern fur seals at Tyuleniy Island. To answer the question has the way males were harvested influenced the population trajectory, we analyzed the visual harem size and birth rate dynamics of the population, as well as the strategy and intensity of the harvest. We analyzed the dynamics of the sex ratio in the early (1958–1988) period to estimate parameters in the late period (1989–2013) based on the observed number of bulls and pups, while utilizing the distribution of reproductive rates obtained from pelagic sealing. Using a matrix population model for the observed part of the population (i.e., the male population), we analyzed the population growth rate associated with changes in both birth and survival rates considering the stochastic effects. Observations allow us to reject the hypothesis of nonselective harvest. Among the variety of natural and anthropogenic factors that could contribute to the decrease in the birth rate in the population, the effect of selective harvesting seems to be the most realistic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Callorhinus ursinus Northern fur seal Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Mathematics 10 17 3067 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Callorhinus ursinus matrix population model harvest conservation growth rate Mathematics QA1-939 |
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Callorhinus ursinus matrix population model harvest conservation growth rate Mathematics QA1-939 Oksana Zhdanova Alexey Kuzin Efim Frisman The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results |
topic_facet |
Callorhinus ursinus matrix population model harvest conservation growth rate Mathematics QA1-939 |
description |
We examine population trends in light of male harvest data considering the long-time series of population data on northern fur seals at Tyuleniy Island. To answer the question has the way males were harvested influenced the population trajectory, we analyzed the visual harem size and birth rate dynamics of the population, as well as the strategy and intensity of the harvest. We analyzed the dynamics of the sex ratio in the early (1958–1988) period to estimate parameters in the late period (1989–2013) based on the observed number of bulls and pups, while utilizing the distribution of reproductive rates obtained from pelagic sealing. Using a matrix population model for the observed part of the population (i.e., the male population), we analyzed the population growth rate associated with changes in both birth and survival rates considering the stochastic effects. Observations allow us to reject the hypothesis of nonselective harvest. Among the variety of natural and anthropogenic factors that could contribute to the decrease in the birth rate in the population, the effect of selective harvesting seems to be the most realistic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Oksana Zhdanova Alexey Kuzin Efim Frisman |
author_facet |
Oksana Zhdanova Alexey Kuzin Efim Frisman |
author_sort |
Oksana Zhdanova |
title |
The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results |
title_short |
The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results |
title_full |
The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results |
title_fullStr |
The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Harvest Effect on Dynamics of Northern Fur Seal Population: Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis Results |
title_sort |
harvest effect on dynamics of northern fur seal population: mathematical modeling and data analysis results |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/math10173067 https://doaj.org/article/a1c074f3cfd447a7b203f0919684d8c7 |
genre |
Callorhinus ursinus Northern fur seal |
genre_facet |
Callorhinus ursinus Northern fur seal |
op_source |
Mathematics, Vol 10, Iss 3067, p 3067 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/10/17/3067 https://doaj.org/toc/2227-7390 doi:10.3390/math10173067 2227-7390 https://doaj.org/article/a1c074f3cfd447a7b203f0919684d8c7 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/math10173067 |
container_title |
Mathematics |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
17 |
container_start_page |
3067 |
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1766243233373880320 |