Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM
The rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is regarded as the dominant reason for observed warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the Paris Agreement target, this research designs three conceptual pathways to achieve the warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level by using the Fast...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a03668e6329b4f0e9f9ac075f79bec39 2023-05-15T17:35:32+02:00 Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 https://doaj.org/article/a03668e6329b4f0e9f9ac075f79bec39 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/10/9/1231 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse10091231 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/a03668e6329b4f0e9f9ac075f79bec39 Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 10, Iss 1231, p 1231 (2022) 1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 2022-12-30T22:01:27Z The rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is regarded as the dominant reason for observed warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the Paris Agreement target, this research designs three conceptual pathways to achieve the warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level by using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. The three different scenarios contain one equilibrium experiment (equilibrium, EQ) and two transient experiments (never-exceed pathway, NE; overshoot pathway, OS). Then, we choose a ten year average that achieves 1.5 °C warming to calculate the climatology of the warming situation. Since OS achieves 1.5 °C twice, we obtain four warming situations to explore the response of ocean temperature. In 2100, the global ocean temperature increases over the global region, except the surface of the Southern Ocean. The difference in heat content mainly depends on the cumulative force of CO 2 concentration. It is worth pointing out that during the increase in warming, the ocean surface temperature and heat content start to respond in different hemispheres. The weakening of decadal variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is robust in all three scenarios. However, there is a tremendous growth in the low-pass ocean surface temperature standard deviation in the Southern Ocean in EQ, which is different to NE and OS, and causes the increase in global mean total standard deviation. The shortening of decadal variability can only be seen from the EQ power spectrum, while NE and OS have similar power spectra with pre-industrial runs. It suggests that all previous studies that use equilibrium experiments data may have overestimated the shortening of decadal variability under global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Southern Ocean Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10 9 1231 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
topic_facet |
1.5 °C warming global ocean temperature decadal variability Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
The rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is regarded as the dominant reason for observed warming since the mid-20th century. Based on the Paris Agreement target, this research designs three conceptual pathways to achieve the warming target of 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level by using the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model. The three different scenarios contain one equilibrium experiment (equilibrium, EQ) and two transient experiments (never-exceed pathway, NE; overshoot pathway, OS). Then, we choose a ten year average that achieves 1.5 °C warming to calculate the climatology of the warming situation. Since OS achieves 1.5 °C twice, we obtain four warming situations to explore the response of ocean temperature. In 2100, the global ocean temperature increases over the global region, except the surface of the Southern Ocean. The difference in heat content mainly depends on the cumulative force of CO 2 concentration. It is worth pointing out that during the increase in warming, the ocean surface temperature and heat content start to respond in different hemispheres. The weakening of decadal variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is robust in all three scenarios. However, there is a tremendous growth in the low-pass ocean surface temperature standard deviation in the Southern Ocean in EQ, which is different to NE and OS, and causes the increase in global mean total standard deviation. The shortening of decadal variability can only be seen from the EQ power spectrum, while NE and OS have similar power spectra with pre-industrial runs. It suggests that all previous studies that use equilibrium experiments data may have overestimated the shortening of decadal variability under global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu |
author_facet |
Sheng Wu Zhengyu Liu Jinbo Du Yonggang Liu |
author_sort |
Sheng Wu |
title |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_short |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_full |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_fullStr |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_full_unstemmed |
Change of Global Ocean Temperature and Decadal Variability under 1.5 °C Warming in FOAM |
title_sort |
change of global ocean temperature and decadal variability under 1.5 °c warming in foam |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 https://doaj.org/article/a03668e6329b4f0e9f9ac075f79bec39 |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 10, Iss 1231, p 1231 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/10/9/1231 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse10091231 2077-1312 https://doaj.org/article/a03668e6329b4f0e9f9ac075f79bec39 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10091231 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1231 |
_version_ |
1766134730712940544 |