The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe
Climate variability is shown to be an important driver of spatial and temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, the influence of climate variability on flood damage has received little attention. We investigated the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:a0153acc696947af8013d9d106b62f0e 2023-09-05T13:21:36+02:00 The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe G Guimarães Nobre B Jongman J Aerts P J Ward 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 https://doaj.org/article/a0153acc696947af8013d9d106b62f0e EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/a0153acc696947af8013d9d106b62f0e Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 8, p 084012 (2017) ENSO NAO EA climate variability extreme rainfall flood damage Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 2023-08-13T00:37:37Z Climate variability is shown to be an important driver of spatial and temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, the influence of climate variability on flood damage has received little attention. We investigated the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic pattern (EA) during their neutral, positive, and negative phases, to understand their relationships with four flood indicators: Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall, Intensity of Extreme Rainfall, Flood Occurrence, and Flood Damage. We found that positive and negative phases of NAO and EA are associated with more (or less) frequent and intense seasonal extreme rainfall over large areas of Europe. The relationship between ENSO and the Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Intensity of Extreme Rainfall in Europe is much smaller than the relationship with NAO or EA, but still significant in some regions. We show that Flood Damage and Flood Occurrence have strong links with climate variability, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Therefore, when investigating flooding across Europe, all three indices of climate variability should be considered. Future research should focus on their joint influence on flood risk. The potential inclusion of seasonal forecasts of indices of climate variability could be effective in forecasting flood damage. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 12 8 084012 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ENSO NAO EA climate variability extreme rainfall flood damage Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
ENSO NAO EA climate variability extreme rainfall flood damage Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 G Guimarães Nobre B Jongman J Aerts P J Ward The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe |
topic_facet |
ENSO NAO EA climate variability extreme rainfall flood damage Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Climate variability is shown to be an important driver of spatial and temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, the influence of climate variability on flood damage has received little attention. We investigated the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the East Atlantic pattern (EA) during their neutral, positive, and negative phases, to understand their relationships with four flood indicators: Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall, Intensity of Extreme Rainfall, Flood Occurrence, and Flood Damage. We found that positive and negative phases of NAO and EA are associated with more (or less) frequent and intense seasonal extreme rainfall over large areas of Europe. The relationship between ENSO and the Occurrence of Extreme Rainfall and Intensity of Extreme Rainfall in Europe is much smaller than the relationship with NAO or EA, but still significant in some regions. We show that Flood Damage and Flood Occurrence have strong links with climate variability, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Therefore, when investigating flooding across Europe, all three indices of climate variability should be considered. Future research should focus on their joint influence on flood risk. The potential inclusion of seasonal forecasts of indices of climate variability could be effective in forecasting flood damage. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
G Guimarães Nobre B Jongman J Aerts P J Ward |
author_facet |
G Guimarães Nobre B Jongman J Aerts P J Ward |
author_sort |
G Guimarães Nobre |
title |
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe |
title_short |
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe |
title_full |
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe |
title_fullStr |
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe |
title_sort |
role of climate variability in extreme floods in europe |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 https://doaj.org/article/a0153acc696947af8013d9d106b62f0e |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 8, p 084012 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/a0153acc696947af8013d9d106b62f0e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084012 |
_version_ |
1776202199731273728 |