Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, eviden...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b https://doaj.org/article/9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 2023-09-05T13:11:40+02:00 Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b https://doaj.org/article/9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 4, p 045010 (2019) Arctic climate change observational records AMAP Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b 2023-08-13T00:37:28Z Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO _2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO _2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. Article in Journal/Newspaper AMAP Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 14 4 045010 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate change observational records AMAP Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate change observational records AMAP Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate change observational records AMAP Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements of the Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification of the hydrological cycle, evident from increases in humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue in sea ice thickness (and extent) and spring snow cover extent and duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several of the climate indicators exhibit a significant statistical correlation with air temperature or precipitation, reinforcing the notion that increasing air temperatures and precipitation are drivers of major changes in various components of the Arctic system. To progress beyond a presentation of the Arctic physical climate changes, we find a correspondence between air temperature and biophysical indicators such as tundra biomass and identify numerous biophysical disruptions with cascading effects throughout the trophic levels. These include: increased delivery of organic matter and nutrients to Arctic near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering and pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch between plant flowering and pollinators; increased plant vulnerability to insect disturbance; increased shrub biomass; increased ignition of wildfires; increased growing season CO _2 uptake, with counterbalancing increases in shoulder season and winter CO _2 emissions; increased carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology and permafrost thaw; conversion between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and shifting animal distribution and demographics. The Arctic biophysical system is now clearly trending away from its 20th Century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic. The indicator time series of this study are freely downloadable at AMAP.no. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen |
author_facet |
Jason E Box William T Colgan Torben Røjle Christensen Niels Martin Schmidt Magnus Lund Frans-Jan W Parmentier Ross Brown Uma S Bhatt Eugénie S Euskirchen Vladimir E Romanovsky John E Walsh James E Overland Muyin Wang Robert W Corell Walter N Meier Bert Wouters Sebastian Mernild Johanna Mård Janet Pawlak Morten Skovgård Olsen |
author_sort |
Jason E Box |
title |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_short |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_full |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_fullStr |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
title_sort |
key indicators of arctic climate change: 1971–2017 |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b https://doaj.org/article/9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
AMAP Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra |
genre_facet |
AMAP Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Sea ice Tundra |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 14, Iss 4, p 045010 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/9f8f294d2d3b40c9847fae7f7b4ef717 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
045010 |
_version_ |
1776196741180162048 |