Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent. So far, howeve...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 https://doaj.org/article/9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 2023-08-20T04:06:49+02:00 Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet J. Beckmann R. Winkelmann 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 https://doaj.org/article/9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/3083/2023/tc-17-3083-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 3083-3099 (2023) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 2023-07-30T00:37:25Z Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios which only take gradual changes in the climate into account. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the changes in ice flow, invoked by the altered surface topography. As a first constraint, this study estimates the overall effect of extreme melt events on the cumulative mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the sea level contribution from Greenland might increase by 2 to 45 cm (0.2 % to 14 %) by the year 2300 if extreme events occur more frequently in the future under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, and the ice sheet area might be reduced by an additional 6000 to 26 000 km 2 by 2300 in comparison to future warming scenarios without extremes. In conclusion, projecting the future sea level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet requires consideration of the changes in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events. It is crucial to individually address these extremes at a monthly resolution as temperature forcing with the same excess temperature but evenly distributed over longer timescales (e.g., seasonal) leads to less sea level rise than for the simulations of the resolved extremes. Extremes lead to additional mass loss and thinning. This, in turn, reduces the driving stress and surface velocities, ultimately dampening the ice loss attributed to ice flow and discharge. Overall, we find that the surface elevation feedback largely amplifies melting for scenarios with and without extremes, with additional mass loss attributed to this feedback having the greatest impact ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland The Cryosphere 17 7 3083 3099 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 J. Beckmann R. Winkelmann Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events, the most pronounced ones in the years 2010, 2012 and 2019. With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent. So far, however, projections of ice loss and sea level change from Greenland typically rely on scenarios which only take gradual changes in the climate into account. Using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), we investigate the effect of extreme melt events on the overall mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the changes in ice flow, invoked by the altered surface topography. As a first constraint, this study estimates the overall effect of extreme melt events on the cumulative mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that the sea level contribution from Greenland might increase by 2 to 45 cm (0.2 % to 14 %) by the year 2300 if extreme events occur more frequently in the future under a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, and the ice sheet area might be reduced by an additional 6000 to 26 000 km 2 by 2300 in comparison to future warming scenarios without extremes. In conclusion, projecting the future sea level contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet requires consideration of the changes in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events. It is crucial to individually address these extremes at a monthly resolution as temperature forcing with the same excess temperature but evenly distributed over longer timescales (e.g., seasonal) leads to less sea level rise than for the simulations of the resolved extremes. Extremes lead to additional mass loss and thinning. This, in turn, reduces the driving stress and surface velocities, ultimately dampening the ice loss attributed to ice flow and discharge. Overall, we find that the surface elevation feedback largely amplifies melting for scenarios with and without extremes, with additional mass loss attributed to this feedback having the greatest impact ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Beckmann R. Winkelmann |
author_facet |
J. Beckmann R. Winkelmann |
author_sort |
J. Beckmann |
title |
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_short |
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_full |
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_fullStr |
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the Greenland Ice Sheet |
title_sort |
effects of extreme melt events on ice flow and sea level rise of the greenland ice sheet |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 https://doaj.org/article/9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 17, Pp 3083-3099 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/17/3083/2023/tc-17-3083-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9f2ca1ef4a19410385542ed0536a8997 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
3083 |
op_container_end_page |
3099 |
_version_ |
1774718140750495744 |