Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle
Rainfall in the Caribbean is an important resource for numerous stakeholders in the region. Based on previous work, which identified several variables that could provide predictive skill of rainfall in the region, canonical correlation analysis is applied to assess forecast skill for station-average...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9eb5e12a3ed44c22a5ddf9b60d0ea611 2023-05-15T17:35:09+02:00 Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle Carlos Martinez Ángel G. Muñoz Lisa Goddard Yochanan Kushnir Mingfang Ting 2022-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309 https://doaj.org/article/9eb5e12a3ed44c22a5ddf9b60d0ea611 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000279 https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8807 2405-8807 doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309 https://doaj.org/article/9eb5e12a3ed44c22a5ddf9b60d0ea611 Climate Services, Vol 27, Iss , Pp 100309- (2022) Caribbean rainfall S2S ENSO NAO Prediction Climate service Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309 2022-12-30T20:45:13Z Rainfall in the Caribbean is an important resource for numerous stakeholders in the region. Based on previous work, which identified several variables that could provide predictive skill of rainfall in the region, canonical correlation analysis is applied to assess forecast skill for station-averaged sub-regional frequency and intensity of the Early-Rainy Season (ERS) and Late-Rainy Season (LRS) wet days, and magnitude of the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). Predictor fields are explored from the ERA-Interim and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). The use of sea-level pressure (SLP), 850 hPa zonal winds (u850), vertically integrated zonal (UQ), and meridional (VQ) moisture fluxes show comparable, if not better, forecast skill than sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which is generally the commonly-used predictor in a given region’s seasonal climate forecasts. Generally, the highest predictive skill is found for the frequency of wet days. Rainfall characteristics in the Central and Eastern Caribbean have significant predictive skill. Forecast skill of rainfall characteristics in the Northwestern and Western Caribbean are lower and less consistent. The sub-regional differences and consistently significant skill across lead times up to at least two months can be attributed to persistent SST/SLP anomalies during the ERS that resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation, and that resembles the summer-time onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the LRS. The anomalous spatial patterns during the MSD bear resemblance to both the ERS and LRS signals. The results provide additional variables that can be used to forecast rainfall characteristics in the Caribbean and a way to tailor seasonal forecasts for each sub-region. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate Services 27 100309 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Caribbean rainfall S2S ENSO NAO Prediction Climate service Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
spellingShingle |
Caribbean rainfall S2S ENSO NAO Prediction Climate service Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 Carlos Martinez Ángel G. Muñoz Lisa Goddard Yochanan Kushnir Mingfang Ting Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle |
topic_facet |
Caribbean rainfall S2S ENSO NAO Prediction Climate service Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
description |
Rainfall in the Caribbean is an important resource for numerous stakeholders in the region. Based on previous work, which identified several variables that could provide predictive skill of rainfall in the region, canonical correlation analysis is applied to assess forecast skill for station-averaged sub-regional frequency and intensity of the Early-Rainy Season (ERS) and Late-Rainy Season (LRS) wet days, and magnitude of the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). Predictor fields are explored from the ERA-Interim and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). The use of sea-level pressure (SLP), 850 hPa zonal winds (u850), vertically integrated zonal (UQ), and meridional (VQ) moisture fluxes show comparable, if not better, forecast skill than sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which is generally the commonly-used predictor in a given region’s seasonal climate forecasts. Generally, the highest predictive skill is found for the frequency of wet days. Rainfall characteristics in the Central and Eastern Caribbean have significant predictive skill. Forecast skill of rainfall characteristics in the Northwestern and Western Caribbean are lower and less consistent. The sub-regional differences and consistently significant skill across lead times up to at least two months can be attributed to persistent SST/SLP anomalies during the ERS that resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation, and that resembles the summer-time onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the LRS. The anomalous spatial patterns during the MSD bear resemblance to both the ERS and LRS signals. The results provide additional variables that can be used to forecast rainfall characteristics in the Caribbean and a way to tailor seasonal forecasts for each sub-region. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Carlos Martinez Ángel G. Muñoz Lisa Goddard Yochanan Kushnir Mingfang Ting |
author_facet |
Carlos Martinez Ángel G. Muñoz Lisa Goddard Yochanan Kushnir Mingfang Ting |
author_sort |
Carlos Martinez |
title |
Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle |
title_short |
Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle |
title_full |
Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle |
title_sort |
seasonal prediction of the caribbean rainfall cycle |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309 https://doaj.org/article/9eb5e12a3ed44c22a5ddf9b60d0ea611 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate Services, Vol 27, Iss , Pp 100309- (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000279 https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8807 2405-8807 doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309 https://doaj.org/article/9eb5e12a3ed44c22a5ddf9b60d0ea611 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100309 |
container_title |
Climate Services |
container_volume |
27 |
container_start_page |
100309 |
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1766134217900556288 |