Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR.
Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We de...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 https://doaj.org/article/9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 2023-05-15T15:15:39+02:00 Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. Cory W Morin Andrew J Monaghan Mary H Hayden Roberto Barrera Kacey Ernst 2015-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 https://doaj.org/article/9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4537107?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 https://doaj.org/article/9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 8, p e0004002 (2015) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 2022-12-31T13:07:06Z Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010-2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic San Juan PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 9 8 e0004002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Cory W Morin Andrew J Monaghan Mary H Hayden Roberto Barrera Kacey Ernst Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010-2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cory W Morin Andrew J Monaghan Mary H Hayden Roberto Barrera Kacey Ernst |
author_facet |
Cory W Morin Andrew J Monaghan Mary H Hayden Roberto Barrera Kacey Ernst |
author_sort |
Cory W Morin |
title |
Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. |
title_short |
Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. |
title_full |
Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. |
title_fullStr |
Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR. |
title_sort |
meteorologically driven simulations of dengue epidemics in san juan, pr. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 https://doaj.org/article/9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 |
geographic |
Arctic San Juan |
geographic_facet |
Arctic San Juan |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 9, Iss 8, p e0004002 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4537107?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 https://doaj.org/article/9e9d6d4fecae4aea9953657f74f813b3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004002 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
e0004002 |
_version_ |
1766346011046838272 |