A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers
Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such a...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9e9a949d1e3d479eac750bd986541084 2023-05-15T13:40:56+02:00 A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers V. Emetc P. Tregoning M. Morlighem C. Borstad M. Sambridge 2018-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 https://doaj.org/article/9e9a949d1e3d479eac750bd986541084 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3187/2018/tc-12-3187-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9e9a949d1e3d479eac750bd986541084 The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3187-3213 (2018) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 2022-12-31T05:43:07Z Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland The Cryosphere 12 10 3187 3213 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 V. Emetc P. Tregoning M. Morlighem C. Borstad M. Sambridge A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65 m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84 % for grounded ice and 61 % for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26 % and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
V. Emetc P. Tregoning M. Morlighem C. Borstad M. Sambridge |
author_facet |
V. Emetc P. Tregoning M. Morlighem C. Borstad M. Sambridge |
author_sort |
V. Emetc |
title |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_short |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_full |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_fullStr |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_full_unstemmed |
A statistical fracture model for Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
title_sort |
statistical fracture model for antarctic ice shelves and glaciers |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 https://doaj.org/article/9e9a949d1e3d479eac750bd986541084 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 12, Pp 3187-3213 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3187/2018/tc-12-3187-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/9e9a949d1e3d479eac750bd986541084 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3187-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3187 |
op_container_end_page |
3213 |
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1766143439551856640 |