Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years

• Published in: eLife
• Main Authors: Stefan Kruse, Ulrike Herzschuh
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: eLife Sciences Publications Ltd 2022
• Subjects: Larix gmelinii; Larix cajanderi; nonlinear response; treeline ecotone; tundra; Medicine; R; Science; Q; Biology (General); QH301-705.5; taiga; Tundra
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.75163; https://doaj.org/article/9e649f7f27624a5fbfebf67ebb4d939a

The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ∼30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.