Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands
Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (ca...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:9e362bbcbe06454fba4bb938116bebaa 2023-05-15T15:46:03+02:00 Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands Janneke Schreuder Henrik J. de Knegt Francisca C. Velkers Armin R. W. Elbers Julia Stahl Roy Slaterus J. Arjan Stegeman Willem F. de Boer 2022-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549 https://doaj.org/article/9e362bbcbe06454fba4bb938116bebaa EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/11/5/549 https://doaj.org/toc/2076-0817 doi:10.3390/pathogens11050549 2076-0817 https://doaj.org/article/9e362bbcbe06454fba4bb938116bebaa Pathogens, Vol 11, Iss 549, p 549 (2022) avian influenza influenza A virus highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry disease outbreaks surveillance Medicine R article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549 2022-12-30T20:02:03Z Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds of prey, and 1 represented the surrounding landscape, i.e., agricultural cover. The spatial distribution of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) contributed most to risk prediction, followed by mute swan ( Cygnus olor ), common kestrel ( Falco tinnunculus ) and brant goose ( Branta bernicla ). The model successfully distinguished cases from controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92, indicating accurate prediction of HPAI outbreak risk despite the limited numbers of cases. Different classification algorithms led to similar predictions, demonstrating robustness of the risk maps. These analyses and risk maps facilitate insights into the role of wild bird species and support prioritization of areas for surveillance, biosecurity measures and establishments of new poultry farms to reduce HPAI outbreak risks. Article in Journal/Newspaper brant goose Branta bernicla Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Olor ENVELOPE(88.531,88.531,69.600,69.600) Pathogens 11 5 549 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
avian influenza influenza A virus highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry disease outbreaks surveillance Medicine R |
spellingShingle |
avian influenza influenza A virus highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry disease outbreaks surveillance Medicine R Janneke Schreuder Henrik J. de Knegt Francisca C. Velkers Armin R. W. Elbers Julia Stahl Roy Slaterus J. Arjan Stegeman Willem F. de Boer Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands |
topic_facet |
avian influenza influenza A virus highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry disease outbreaks surveillance Medicine R |
description |
Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses’ (HPAIVs) transmission from wild birds to poultry occurs globally, threatening animal and public health. To predict the HPAI outbreak risk in relation to wild bird densities and land cover variables, we performed a case-control study of 26 HPAI outbreaks (cases) on Dutch poultry farms, each matched with four comparable controls. We trained machine learning classifiers to predict outbreak risk with predictors analyzed at different spatial scales. Of the 20 best explaining predictors, 17 consisted of densities of water-associated bird species, 2 of birds of prey, and 1 represented the surrounding landscape, i.e., agricultural cover. The spatial distribution of mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) contributed most to risk prediction, followed by mute swan ( Cygnus olor ), common kestrel ( Falco tinnunculus ) and brant goose ( Branta bernicla ). The model successfully distinguished cases from controls, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92, indicating accurate prediction of HPAI outbreak risk despite the limited numbers of cases. Different classification algorithms led to similar predictions, demonstrating robustness of the risk maps. These analyses and risk maps facilitate insights into the role of wild bird species and support prioritization of areas for surveillance, biosecurity measures and establishments of new poultry farms to reduce HPAI outbreak risks. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Janneke Schreuder Henrik J. de Knegt Francisca C. Velkers Armin R. W. Elbers Julia Stahl Roy Slaterus J. Arjan Stegeman Willem F. de Boer |
author_facet |
Janneke Schreuder Henrik J. de Knegt Francisca C. Velkers Armin R. W. Elbers Julia Stahl Roy Slaterus J. Arjan Stegeman Willem F. de Boer |
author_sort |
Janneke Schreuder |
title |
Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands |
title_short |
Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands |
title_full |
Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands |
title_fullStr |
Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands |
title_full_unstemmed |
Wild Bird Densities and Landscape Variables Predict Spatial Patterns in HPAI Outbreak Risk across The Netherlands |
title_sort |
wild bird densities and landscape variables predict spatial patterns in hpai outbreak risk across the netherlands |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549 https://doaj.org/article/9e362bbcbe06454fba4bb938116bebaa |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(88.531,88.531,69.600,69.600) |
geographic |
Olor |
geographic_facet |
Olor |
genre |
brant goose Branta bernicla |
genre_facet |
brant goose Branta bernicla |
op_source |
Pathogens, Vol 11, Iss 549, p 549 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/11/5/549 https://doaj.org/toc/2076-0817 doi:10.3390/pathogens11050549 2076-0817 https://doaj.org/article/9e362bbcbe06454fba4bb938116bebaa |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens11050549 |
container_title |
Pathogens |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
549 |
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1766380740607475712 |