Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.

• Published in: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• Main Authors: Zhihao Li, Tao Liu, Guanghu Zhu, Hualiang Lin, Yonghui Zhang, Jianfeng He, Aiping Deng, Zhiqiang Peng, Jianpeng Xiao, Shannon Rutherford, Runsheng Xie, Weilin Zeng, Xing Li, Wenjun Ma
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2017
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Arctic; Gam
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005354; https://doaj.org/article/9dc28fb7bce94b07930fa306c0f9a535

BACKGROUND:Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29). CONCLUSIONS:Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou.